Tensions in U.S.-Cuba relations remain elevated under the Trump administration, with sanctions imposed in early May on Cuban regime officials and continued pressure over fuel supplies and political reforms. Lower-level diplomatic contacts occurred in April, but President Trump and Cuban leader Miguel Díaz-Canel have not held direct talks, and no such call is scheduled before the June 30 deadline. Recent statements from both sides, including Díaz-Canel's emphasis on dialogue without preconditions and Trump's references to broader discussions, focus on policy demands rather than personal engagement. This backdrop supports the trader consensus reflected in the current odds, as the absence of any announced high-level outreach makes an imminent direct conversation unlikely.