The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This decision, contrasting with support from Mexico and Canada, activated the annual review process that continues until consensus or the 2036 expiration. Ongoing bilateral negotiations, including rounds with Mexico on automotive rules of origin, Section 232 tariffs, and trade imbalances, have not yet produced an extension agreement as of mid-August. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% “No” probability aligns with the U.S. administration’s stated priority for substantive changes before any renewal confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено21% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
21% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This decision, contrasting with support from Mexico and Canada, activated the annual review process that continues until consensus or the 2036 expiration. Ongoing bilateral negotiations, including rounds with Mexico on automotive rules of origin, Section 232 tariffs, and trade imbalances, have not yet produced an extension agreement as of mid-August. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% “No” probability aligns with the U.S. administration’s stated priority for substantive changes before any renewal confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,924Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This decision, contrasting with support from Mexico and Canada, activated the annual review process that continues until consensus or the 2036 expiration. Ongoing bilateral negotiations, including rounds with Mexico on automotive rules of origin, Section 232 tariffs, and trade imbalances, have not yet produced an extension agreement as of mid-August. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% “No” probability aligns with the U.S. administration’s stated priority for substantive changes before any renewal confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$9,924Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States declined to confirm a 16-year extension of the USMCA during the mandatory July 1, 2026 joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating the agreement would not be renewed in its current form. This decision, contrasting with support from Mexico and Canada, activated the annual review process that continues until consensus or the 2036 expiration. Ongoing bilateral negotiations, including rounds with Mexico on automotive rules of origin, Section 232 tariffs, and trade imbalances, have not yet produced an extension agreement as of mid-August. Trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% “No” probability aligns with the U.S. administration’s stated priority for substantive changes before any renewal confirmation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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