**Beatriz Mojica Morga leads the Guerrero gubernatorial race at 76.5% implied probability.** She secured Morena’s nomination in mid-September 2026 after topping the party’s internal survey across knowledge, favorability, and preference metrics, earning the maximum score and designation as state coordinator of the Defense of the Transformation ahead of the June 2027 election. Recent polling shows the Morena-PT-PVEM coalition holding roughly 50%+ support statewide, with Mojica opening a wide margin over potential rivals such as Esthela Damián Peralta and opposition figures including Manuel Añorve Baños. Trader consensus reflects Morena’s structural dominance in the state, Mojica’s established local profile and recent polling gains, and the absence of major late developments that would reopen the internal process or shift the general-election outlook. Low probabilities for listed alternatives align with their weaker positioning in both coalition surveys and head-to-head matchups.