Ongoing bilateral talks and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 are the primary drivers behind the 88% implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by year-end. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s planned meeting with Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend precedes discussions on reciprocal tariff cuts covering roughly $30 billion in trade each way, including energy, agricultural products, and manufacturer inputs at most-favored-nation rates. These steps build on the Kuala Lumpur arrangement’s one-year truce (expiring November 10, 2026) and the Board of Trade framework established earlier in 2026, with both sides signaling intent to stabilize duties without exceeding prior caps. Recent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed bounds, supporting trader expectations that momentum from the summit will produce a formal extension or new reductions before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено88% шанс
$251,834 Обс.
$251,834 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
88% шанс
$251,834 Обс.
$251,834 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 are the primary drivers behind the 88% implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by year-end. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s planned meeting with Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend precedes discussions on reciprocal tariff cuts covering roughly $30 billion in trade each way, including energy, agricultural products, and manufacturer inputs at most-favored-nation rates. These steps build on the Kuala Lumpur arrangement’s one-year truce (expiring November 10, 2026) and the Board of Trade framework established earlier in 2026, with both sides signaling intent to stabilize duties without exceeding prior caps. Recent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed bounds, supporting trader expectations that momentum from the summit will produce a formal extension or new reductions before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$251,834Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing bilateral talks and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 are the primary drivers behind the 88% implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by year-end. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s planned meeting with Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend precedes discussions on reciprocal tariff cuts covering roughly $30 billion in trade each way, including energy, agricultural products, and manufacturer inputs at most-favored-nation rates. These steps build on the Kuala Lumpur arrangement’s one-year truce (expiring November 10, 2026) and the Board of Trade framework established earlier in 2026, with both sides signaling intent to stabilize duties without exceeding prior caps. Recent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed bounds, supporting trader expectations that momentum from the summit will produce a formal extension or new reductions before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$251,834Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Ongoing bilateral talks and the upcoming Trump-Xi summit on September 24 are the primary drivers behind the 88% implied probability of a US-China tariff agreement by year-end. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s planned meeting with Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend precedes discussions on reciprocal tariff cuts covering roughly $30 billion in trade each way, including energy, agricultural products, and manufacturer inputs at most-favored-nation rates. These steps build on the Kuala Lumpur arrangement’s one-year truce (expiring November 10, 2026) and the Board of Trade framework established earlier in 2026, with both sides signaling intent to stabilize duties without exceeding prior caps. Recent Section 301 actions have stayed within agreed bounds, supporting trader expectations that momentum from the summit will produce a formal extension or new reductions before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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