Recent US-China trade talks, including Treasury Secretary meetings and preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit, center on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods such as US energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. These build on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur truce framework, the May 2026 establishment of bilateral trade and investment boards, and ongoing Section 301 adjustments that have kept average rates near 30-36%. With the current truce slated to lapse in November, traders see these steps as likely to produce a formal agreement or extension by year-end, reflected in the 89.3% implied probability for a deal. Additional diplomatic channels and public comment processes on tariff relief further support expectations of near-term progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено89% шанс
$252,200 Обс.
$252,200 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
89% шанс
$252,200 Обс.
$252,200 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-China trade talks, including Treasury Secretary meetings and preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit, center on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods such as US energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. These build on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur truce framework, the May 2026 establishment of bilateral trade and investment boards, and ongoing Section 301 adjustments that have kept average rates near 30-36%. With the current truce slated to lapse in November, traders see these steps as likely to produce a formal agreement or extension by year-end, reflected in the 89.3% implied probability for a deal. Additional diplomatic channels and public comment processes on tariff relief further support expectations of near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ринок відкрито: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$252,200Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent US-China trade talks, including Treasury Secretary meetings and preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit, center on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods such as US energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. These build on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur truce framework, the May 2026 establishment of bilateral trade and investment boards, and ongoing Section 301 adjustments that have kept average rates near 30-36%. With the current truce slated to lapse in November, traders see these steps as likely to produce a formal agreement or extension by year-end, reflected in the 89.3% implied probability for a deal. Additional diplomatic channels and public comment processes on tariff relief further support expectations of near-term progress.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Обсяг
$252,200Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent US-China trade talks, including Treasury Secretary meetings and preparations for the late-September Trump-Xi summit, center on reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly $30 billion in goods such as US energy and agricultural exports alongside Chinese manufacturing inputs. These build on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur truce framework, the May 2026 establishment of bilateral trade and investment boards, and ongoing Section 301 adjustments that have kept average rates near 30-36%. With the current truce slated to lapse in November, traders see these steps as likely to produce a formal agreement or extension by year-end, reflected in the 89.3% implied probability for a deal. Additional diplomatic channels and public comment processes on tariff relief further support expectations of near-term progress.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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