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Політика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Політика·Стармер

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.9%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%

Polymarket

$356,091 Обс.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 8.9%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.3%

Polymarket

$356,091 Обс.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,690 Обс.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,239 Обс.

30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,803 Обс.

9%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Обс.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Обс.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Обс.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Обс.

1%

None before 2027

$18,988 Обс.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$18,804 Обс.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Обс.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Обс.

1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Обс.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Обс.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Обс.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Обс.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Обс.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Обс.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Обс.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Обс.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Обс.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Обс.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,150 Обс.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Обс.

<1%

Macron - France President

$11,830 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent internal pressures on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, including Labour's heavy losses in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and explicit leadership challenges from figures like Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, have positioned him as the leading outcome at 45%. Traders view these developments as accelerating the risk of his departure well before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro ranks second at 30% because his single term ends constitutionally in August 2026 following the May presidential vote, creating a fixed timeline for removal absent early removal. Lower-probability leaders such as Díaz-Canel, Takaichi, and Sheinbaum face fewer immediate catalysts, with stable institutional support or longer mandates keeping their implied chances below 10%. Upcoming events like UK parliamentary maneuvers and Colombia's transition process could further shift the consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$356,091
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent internal pressures on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, including Labour's heavy losses in local elections, multiple cabinet resignations, and explicit leadership challenges from figures like Wes Streeting and Andy Burnham, have positioned him as the leading outcome at 45%. Traders view these developments as accelerating the risk of his departure well before 2027. Colombia's Gustavo Petro ranks second at 30% because his single term ends constitutionally in August 2026 following the May presidential vote, creating a fixed timeline for removal absent early removal. Lower-probability leaders such as Díaz-Canel, Takaichi, and Sheinbaum face fewer immediate catalysts, with stable institutional support or longer mandates keeping their implied chances below 10%. Upcoming events like UK parliamentary maneuvers and Colombia's transition process could further shift the consensus reflected in current pricing.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$356,091
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 24 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Starmer - UK PM» з 44%, далі «Petro - Colombia President» з 30%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» згенерував $356.1K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Apr 27, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)», перегляньте 24 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» — «Starmer - UK PM» з 44%. Наступний — «Petro - Colombia President» з 30%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.