Nithya Raman holds the edge in trader consensus for the November 3 Los Angeles mayoral runoff because a late-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed her leading incumbent Karen Bass 39% to 28% among likely voters, with one-third still undecided. The survey highlighted Bass’s 63% unfavorable rating, linked in part to voter dissatisfaction with the city’s response to the January 2025 Palisades Fire and rising homelessness counts. Raman, a city councilmember backed by the Democratic Socialists of America and several labor groups, draws strong support from younger voters while Bass retains an advantage among older demographics. Mail ballots began arriving October 1, leaving both campaigns several weeks to court the large pool of former Spencer Pratt primary supporters who have not yet committed.