The 99% implied probability on “No” for the Iranian regime falling by September 30 reflects the short remaining window and the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after 2025–2026 conflicts, leadership decapitation, and sustained sanctions. Mojtaba Khamenei’s rapid succession as supreme leader, IRGC consolidation of power, and absence of elite defections or nationwide uprisings have reinforced institutional continuity despite economic strain and a fragile regional ceasefire. Traders view near-term collapse as improbable given the regime’s centralized security apparatus and history of weathering protests without rupture. A sudden, coordinated military escalation or mass domestic revolt triggered by acute shortages could theoretically shift conditions, yet verifiable developments through mid-September show no such catalysts materializing before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1% шанс
$2,125,379 Обс.
$2,125,379 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
1% шанс
$2,125,379 Обс.
$2,125,379 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 99% implied probability on “No” for the Iranian regime falling by September 30 reflects the short remaining window and the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after 2025–2026 conflicts, leadership decapitation, and sustained sanctions. Mojtaba Khamenei’s rapid succession as supreme leader, IRGC consolidation of power, and absence of elite defections or nationwide uprisings have reinforced institutional continuity despite economic strain and a fragile regional ceasefire. Traders view near-term collapse as improbable given the regime’s centralized security apparatus and history of weathering protests without rupture. A sudden, coordinated military escalation or mass domestic revolt triggered by acute shortages could theoretically shift conditions, yet verifiable developments through mid-September show no such catalysts materializing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,125,379Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 99% implied probability on “No” for the Iranian regime falling by September 30 reflects the short remaining window and the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after 2025–2026 conflicts, leadership decapitation, and sustained sanctions. Mojtaba Khamenei’s rapid succession as supreme leader, IRGC consolidation of power, and absence of elite defections or nationwide uprisings have reinforced institutional continuity despite economic strain and a fragile regional ceasefire. Traders view near-term collapse as improbable given the regime’s centralized security apparatus and history of weathering protests without rupture. A sudden, coordinated military escalation or mass domestic revolt triggered by acute shortages could theoretically shift conditions, yet verifiable developments through mid-September show no such catalysts materializing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,125,379Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The 99% implied probability on “No” for the Iranian regime falling by September 30 reflects the short remaining window and the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience after 2025–2026 conflicts, leadership decapitation, and sustained sanctions. Mojtaba Khamenei’s rapid succession as supreme leader, IRGC consolidation of power, and absence of elite defections or nationwide uprisings have reinforced institutional continuity despite economic strain and a fragile regional ceasefire. Traders view near-term collapse as improbable given the regime’s centralized security apparatus and history of weathering protests without rupture. A sudden, coordinated military escalation or mass domestic revolt triggered by acute shortages could theoretically shift conditions, yet verifiable developments through mid-September show no such catalysts materializing before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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