**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?
190-209 100.0%
230+ 5.0%
210-229 4.2%
<170 <1%
$47,984 Обс.
$47,984 Обс.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
No
170-189
No
190-209
Yes
210-229
No
230+
No
190-209 100.0%
230+ 5.0%
210-229 4.2%
<170 <1%
$47,984 Обс.
$47,984 Обс.
Sep 13, 2026
<170
$15,898 Обс.
No
170-189
$3,049 Обс.
No
190-209
$4,187 Обс.
Yes
210-229
$2,392 Обс.
No
230+
$22,458 Обс.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Обсяг
$47,984Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$47,984Дата завершення
Sep 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
**Persistent Houthi control over key Red Sea positions, including recent gains around Perim Island and Mokha, combined with elevated war-risk premiums and selective carrier pauses, has kept Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits compressed near 200 vessels.** Data from the week of September 7 through 13 showed daily commodity and tanker crossings averaging roughly 25–30, producing totals aligned with the 190–209 range amid ongoing AIS-visible activity and some shadow-fleet movements. This level reflects a partial stabilization after August declines tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, with rerouting incentives from Hormuz disruptions providing limited support but not enough to lift volumes materially above the recent trough. Market-implied odds exceeding 96% on this bin reflect trader consensus on these structural constraints. A clear downside break would require either a sharp escalation in attacks or a broad new embargo that forces additional diversions around the Cape.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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