Escalating cross-border strikes and Houthi territorial gains in Yemen’s Red Sea coast have intensified trader focus on whether the group will conduct a qualifying military entry into Saudi Arabia by the resolution date. Recent Houthi missile and drone attacks have struck southern Saudi provinces including Jizan, Abha, Khamis Mushait, and Najran, injuring dozens of civilians and damaging energy facilities, prompting Riyadh to shut its East-West pipeline and conduct retaliatory airstrikes. Iran-backed advances capturing Mokha and Perim Island near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, alongside Saudi requests for direct U.S. military support, have heightened risks of further escalation or ground incursions. Ongoing coalition operations, potential U.S. involvement under the current administration, and Houthi statements framing actions as retaliation continue to shape near-term probabilities reflected in market pricing.