Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including recent seizures of Mokha port and nearby islands in the Bab el-Mandeb approaches, represent the dominant factor suppressing weekly vessel volumes and anchoring the market’s leading <170 outcome at 39%. Shipping data through mid-September show daily transits fluctuating in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated threat levels, rerouting incentives, and selective AIS dark transits, well below pre-escalation baselines. This environment has kept aggregate weekly counts compressed even as some carriers test limited passages. Key near-term catalysts include any further Houthi coastal advances, UN Security Council responses, or shifts in Saudi-linked cargo flows that could alter risk premiums and throughput.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 39%
170-189 25%
190-209 22%
210-229 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<170
39%
170-189
25%
190-209
22%
210-229
9%
230+
3%
<170 39%
170-189 25%
190-209 22%
210-229 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$3,809 Обс.
39%
170-189
$2,455 Обс.
25%
190-209
$1,268 Обс.
22%
210-229
$1,089 Обс.
9%
230+
$1,132 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including recent seizures of Mokha port and nearby islands in the Bab el-Mandeb approaches, represent the dominant factor suppressing weekly vessel volumes and anchoring the market’s leading <170 outcome at 39%. Shipping data through mid-September show daily transits fluctuating in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated threat levels, rerouting incentives, and selective AIS dark transits, well below pre-escalation baselines. This environment has kept aggregate weekly counts compressed even as some carriers test limited passages. Key near-term catalysts include any further Houthi coastal advances, UN Security Council responses, or shifts in Saudi-linked cargo flows that could alter risk premiums and throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,753Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including recent seizures of Mokha port and nearby islands in the Bab el-Mandeb approaches, represent the dominant factor suppressing weekly vessel volumes and anchoring the market’s leading <170 outcome at 39%. Shipping data through mid-September show daily transits fluctuating in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated threat levels, rerouting incentives, and selective AIS dark transits, well below pre-escalation baselines. This environment has kept aggregate weekly counts compressed even as some carriers test limited passages. Key near-term catalysts include any further Houthi coastal advances, UN Security Council responses, or shifts in Saudi-linked cargo flows that could alter risk premiums and throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$9,753Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including recent seizures of Mokha port and nearby islands in the Bab el-Mandeb approaches, represent the dominant factor suppressing weekly vessel volumes and anchoring the market’s leading <170 outcome at 39%. Shipping data through mid-September show daily transits fluctuating in the low-to-mid 20s amid elevated threat levels, rerouting incentives, and selective AIS dark transits, well below pre-escalation baselines. This environment has kept aggregate weekly counts compressed even as some carriers test limited passages. Key near-term catalysts include any further Houthi coastal advances, UN Security Council responses, or shifts in Saudi-linked cargo flows that could alter risk premiums and throughput.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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