With just two weeks until the May 31 deadline, traders see few scheduled events on President Trump’s calendar that typically feature personal displays of affection, keeping the implied probability of a notable public kiss at only 18.5%. Recent early-May appearances, including an air kiss with First Lady Melania Trump at a May 7 event and a cheek peck during a White House military mothers gathering on May 6, have not generated momentum toward anything more intimate. Trump’s focus on policy rollouts and international travel has reinforced the couple’s pattern of measured, low-key interactions in public. No major family milestones or ceremonial moments are currently locked in before month-end, leaving little room for the kind of viral moment that could flip the market.