The Iranian regime's resilience through the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with its rapid internal leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, has anchored trader consensus that it will remain intact through May 31. Security forces have suppressed ongoing protests stemming from economic hardship, internet restrictions, and sanctions without major defections, while the government reconstituted military assets during the ceasefire and installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor. These developments, alongside the absence of coordinated opposition momentum or institutional fractures, underpin the overwhelming probability traders assign to continuity. Even amid diplomatic negotiations and regional tensions, any reversal would require an unprecedented domestic uprising or sudden external shock within the narrow remaining window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи впаде іранський режим до 31 травня?
Чи впаде іранський режим до 31 травня?
Так
$20,398,585 Обс.
$20,398,585 Обс.
May 31, 2026
Так
$20,398,585 Обс.
$20,398,585 Обс.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience through the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with its rapid internal leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, has anchored trader consensus that it will remain intact through May 31. Security forces have suppressed ongoing protests stemming from economic hardship, internet restrictions, and sanctions without major defections, while the government reconstituted military assets during the ceasefire and installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor. These developments, alongside the absence of coordinated opposition momentum or institutional fractures, underpin the overwhelming probability traders assign to continuity. Even amid diplomatic negotiations and regional tensions, any reversal would require an unprecedented domestic uprising or sudden external shock within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,398,585Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's resilience through the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with its rapid internal leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, has anchored trader consensus that it will remain intact through May 31. Security forces have suppressed ongoing protests stemming from economic hardship, internet restrictions, and sanctions without major defections, while the government reconstituted military assets during the ceasefire and installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor. These developments, alongside the absence of coordinated opposition momentum or institutional fractures, underpin the overwhelming probability traders assign to continuity. Even amid diplomatic negotiations and regional tensions, any reversal would require an unprecedented domestic uprising or sudden external shock within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$20,398,585Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's resilience through the 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, combined with its rapid internal leadership transition after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, has anchored trader consensus that it will remain intact through May 31. Security forces have suppressed ongoing protests stemming from economic hardship, internet restrictions, and sanctions without major defections, while the government reconstituted military assets during the ceasefire and installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor. These developments, alongside the absence of coordinated opposition momentum or institutional fractures, underpin the overwhelming probability traders assign to continuity. Even amid diplomatic negotiations and regional tensions, any reversal would require an unprecedented domestic uprising or sudden external shock within the narrow remaining window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання