The endurance of Iran's Islamic Republic, even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing and major escalations in the 2025-2026 conflicts with Israel and the United States, has prevented any transition that would install exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi in a leadership role by the end of 2026. Traders reflect this through near-certain pricing on "No," as Pahlavi remains based abroad without verified broad domestic backing or formal international recognition to head a transitional government. Recent reporting highlights his faltering momentum inside Iran and among Western officials, who have distanced themselves from endorsing him as interim authority. A sudden regime collapse from renewed unrest or decisive external action before year-end could still open a narrow window for his proposed emergency transition plan, though current trajectories point to continuity under existing structures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Чи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Так
3% шанс
$11,704,916 Обс.
$11,704,916 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
Так
3% шанс
$11,704,916 Обс.
$11,704,916 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The endurance of Iran's Islamic Republic, even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing and major escalations in the 2025-2026 conflicts with Israel and the United States, has prevented any transition that would install exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi in a leadership role by the end of 2026. Traders reflect this through near-certain pricing on "No," as Pahlavi remains based abroad without verified broad domestic backing or formal international recognition to head a transitional government. Recent reporting highlights his faltering momentum inside Iran and among Western officials, who have distanced themselves from endorsing him as interim authority. A sudden regime collapse from renewed unrest or decisive external action before year-end could still open a narrow window for his proposed emergency transition plan, though current trajectories point to continuity under existing structures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,704,916Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The endurance of Iran's Islamic Republic, even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing and major escalations in the 2025-2026 conflicts with Israel and the United States, has prevented any transition that would install exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi in a leadership role by the end of 2026. Traders reflect this through near-certain pricing on "No," as Pahlavi remains based abroad without verified broad domestic backing or formal international recognition to head a transitional government. Recent reporting highlights his faltering momentum inside Iran and among Western officials, who have distanced themselves from endorsing him as interim authority. A sudden regime collapse from renewed unrest or decisive external action before year-end could still open a narrow window for his proposed emergency transition plan, though current trajectories point to continuity under existing structures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$11,704,916Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The endurance of Iran's Islamic Republic, even after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing and major escalations in the 2025-2026 conflicts with Israel and the United States, has prevented any transition that would install exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi in a leadership role by the end of 2026. Traders reflect this through near-certain pricing on "No," as Pahlavi remains based abroad without verified broad domestic backing or formal international recognition to head a transitional government. Recent reporting highlights his faltering momentum inside Iran and among Western officials, who have distanced themselves from endorsing him as interim authority. A sudden regime collapse from renewed unrest or decisive external action before year-end could still open a narrow window for his proposed emergency transition plan, though current trajectories point to continuity under existing structures.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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