The entrenched stability of Iran's theocratic institutions, reinforced by security apparatus loyalty and the absence of coordinated internal defections or broad-based coalitions, underpins trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026. Despite his visibility as an exiled opposition figure advocating secular democratic transition, recent developments—including U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier in the year, leadership losses, and subsequent protests—failed to produce regime collapse or a recognized pathway for him to consolidate power. International actors have distanced themselves from endorsing any specific successor, while domestic polling shows divided rather than decisive support. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid elite defections enabling a negotiated interim role, or unforeseen mass uprisings aligning disparate opposition groups behind him before year-end deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЧи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Чи очолить Реза Пехлеві Іран у 2026 році?
Так
3% шанс
$11,700,859 Обс.
$11,700,859 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
Так
3% шанс
$11,700,859 Обс.
$11,700,859 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The entrenched stability of Iran's theocratic institutions, reinforced by security apparatus loyalty and the absence of coordinated internal defections or broad-based coalitions, underpins trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026. Despite his visibility as an exiled opposition figure advocating secular democratic transition, recent developments—including U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier in the year, leadership losses, and subsequent protests—failed to produce regime collapse or a recognized pathway for him to consolidate power. International actors have distanced themselves from endorsing any specific successor, while domestic polling shows divided rather than decisive support. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid elite defections enabling a negotiated interim role, or unforeseen mass uprisings aligning disparate opposition groups behind him before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,700,859Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The entrenched stability of Iran's theocratic institutions, reinforced by security apparatus loyalty and the absence of coordinated internal defections or broad-based coalitions, underpins trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026. Despite his visibility as an exiled opposition figure advocating secular democratic transition, recent developments—including U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier in the year, leadership losses, and subsequent protests—failed to produce regime collapse or a recognized pathway for him to consolidate power. International actors have distanced themselves from endorsing any specific successor, while domestic polling shows divided rather than decisive support. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid elite defections enabling a negotiated interim role, or unforeseen mass uprisings aligning disparate opposition groups behind him before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$11,700,859Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The entrenched stability of Iran's theocratic institutions, reinforced by security apparatus loyalty and the absence of coordinated internal defections or broad-based coalitions, underpins trader consensus against Reza Pahlavi assuming leadership by the end of 2026. Despite his visibility as an exiled opposition figure advocating secular democratic transition, recent developments—including U.S.-Israeli strikes earlier in the year, leadership losses, and subsequent protests—failed to produce regime collapse or a recognized pathway for him to consolidate power. International actors have distanced themselves from endorsing any specific successor, while domestic polling shows divided rather than decisive support. Scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid elite defections enabling a negotiated interim role, or unforeseen mass uprisings aligning disparate opposition groups behind him before year-end deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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