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Politics·Middle East

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

icon for Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Politics·Middle East

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

8% шанс
Polymarket

$152,459 Обс.

8% шанс
Polymarket

$152,459 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and the preceding 2025 conflict, have kept bilateral diplomatic relations severed since 1980. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power through its Tehran interests section, while the State Department maintains a virtual embassy and issues repeated travel warnings urging Americans to depart amid security risks and airspace disruptions. Recent ceasefire agreements and indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan have produced interim understandings on sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disputes over enrichment limits, ballistic missiles, and compliance verification remain unresolved. These factors sustain trader consensus that formal embassy reopening by year-end faces substantial procedural and political barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$152,459
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities, including US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and the preceding 2025 conflict, have kept bilateral diplomatic relations severed since 1980. Switzerland continues to serve as the protecting power through its Tehran interests section, while the State Department maintains a virtual embassy and issues repeated travel warnings urging Americans to depart amid security risks and airspace disruptions. Recent ceasefire agreements and indirect nuclear talks mediated by Oman and Pakistan have produced interim understandings on sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz, yet core disputes over enrichment limits, ballistic missiles, and compliance verification remain unresolved. These factors sustain trader consensus that formal embassy reopening by year-end faces substantial procedural and political barriers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.

Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$152,459
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції «Так» або «Ні» залежно від того, чи вірять вони, що ця подія станеться. Поточна краудсорсингова ймовірність — 8% для «Yes». Наприклад, якщо «Так» коштує 8¢, ринок колективно оцінює шанс цієї події в 8%. Ці шанси безперервно змінюються, коли трейдери реагують на нові події. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?» згенерував $152.5K загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Mar 1, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?», просто оберіть, чи вірите ви, що відповідь — «Так» або «Ні». Кожна сторона має поточну ціну, що відображає ймовірність ринку. Введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви купили акції «Так» і результат — «Так», кожна акція виплачує $1. Якщо «Ні» — ваші акції «Так» коштують $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточна ймовірність для «Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?» — 8% для «Yes». Це означає, що спільнота Polymarket вважає, що є 8% шанс, що ця подія станеться. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі.

Правила вирішення для «Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.