Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent hostilities and stalled diplomatic negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent developments, including Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal and President Trump's May 1 dismissal of Tehran's counteroffer on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, underscore deep divisions without progress toward normalization. The State Department's ongoing security alerts via its Virtual Embassy Iran—such as the April 21 notice on partial airspace reopening—continue advising US citizens to depart, signaling no thaw. Switzerland's March closure of its Tehran embassy, while maintaining a US-Iran communication channel, highlights risks, with historical enmity and active conflict barriers making embassy reopening unlikely before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
$79,763 Обс.
$79,763 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$79,763 Обс.
$79,763 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent hostilities and stalled diplomatic negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent developments, including Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal and President Trump's May 1 dismissal of Tehran's counteroffer on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, underscore deep divisions without progress toward normalization. The State Department's ongoing security alerts via its Virtual Embassy Iran—such as the April 21 notice on partial airspace reopening—continue advising US citizens to depart, signaling no thaw. Switzerland's March closure of its Tehran embassy, while maintaining a US-Iran communication channel, highlights risks, with historical enmity and active conflict barriers making embassy reopening unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Обсяг
$79,763Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent hostilities and stalled diplomatic negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent developments, including Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal and President Trump's May 1 dismissal of Tehran's counteroffer on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, underscore deep divisions without progress toward normalization. The State Department's ongoing security alerts via its Virtual Embassy Iran—such as the April 21 notice on partial airspace reopening—continue advising US citizens to depart, signaling no thaw. Switzerland's March closure of its Tehran embassy, while maintaining a US-Iran communication channel, highlights risks, with historical enmity and active conflict barriers making embassy reopening unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$79,763Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86% implied probability against the US reopening its embassy in Iran in 2026, driven by persistent hostilities and stalled diplomatic negotiations amid a fragile ceasefire. Recent developments, including Iran's May 10 response to a US peace proposal and President Trump's May 1 dismissal of Tehran's counteroffer on nuclear curbs and sanctions relief, underscore deep divisions without progress toward normalization. The State Department's ongoing security alerts via its Virtual Embassy Iran—such as the April 21 notice on partial airspace reopening—continue advising US citizens to depart, signaling no thaw. Switzerland's March closure of its Tehran embassy, while maintaining a US-Iran communication channel, highlights risks, with historical enmity and active conflict barriers making embassy reopening unlikely before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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