Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon during the 2026 conflict advanced past the Litani River in late May toward Hezbollah positions near Nabatieh, with troops reported reaching the outskirts of Choukine after passing Zawtar al-Sharqiyah and Mayfadoun, accompanied by airstrikes and evacuation orders. A US-brokered truce took effect in mid-June, followed by a framework for phased Israeli withdrawals from pilot zones and Lebanese army deployment beginning in July. These diplomatic steps and the resulting de-escalation have shaped trader consensus around limited further incursions, with any renewed clashes, delays in disengagement, or shifts in frontline control remaining the primary variables that could alter implied probabilities for ground entry into the municipality by the resolution date.