Ongoing armed conflict between Israel and Iran, which escalated with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in early 2026 and subsequent Iranian missile responses, has eliminated any near-term path to diplomatic normalization. Bilateral relations have remained frozen since 1979 with no embassies or formal ties, a status reinforced by Israel's calls for allies to sever connections with Tehran and persistent security risks that prompted temporary closures of other nations' missions. Trader consensus at 96.5% for no reopening in 2026 reflects these entrenched hostilities and the absence of any verified de-escalation framework. Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, realistic shifts would require sustained bilateral negotiations or major leadership changes unlikely to materialize before year-end.