Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships, including U.S. visa actions against Brazil’s envoy and a Canadian petition targeting Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, yet no host government has moved to declare a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. The Trump administration’s own recall of dozens of career ambassadors has left more than half of U.S. posts vacant, limiting potential targets for reciprocal expulsions. Countries such as Brazil and Canada have instead pursued targeted visa measures or formal summonses while preserving formal diplomatic channels. This pattern aligns with the historical infrequency of such steps against U.S. representatives and supports the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability for no expulsion by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено19% шанс
$33,023 Обс.
$33,023 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
19% шанс
$33,023 Обс.
$33,023 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships, including U.S. visa actions against Brazil’s envoy and a Canadian petition targeting Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, yet no host government has moved to declare a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. The Trump administration’s own recall of dozens of career ambassadors has left more than half of U.S. posts vacant, limiting potential targets for reciprocal expulsions. Countries such as Brazil and Canada have instead pursued targeted visa measures or formal summonses while preserving formal diplomatic channels. This pattern aligns with the historical infrequency of such steps against U.S. representatives and supports the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability for no expulsion by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Обсяг
$33,023Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships, including U.S. visa actions against Brazil’s envoy and a Canadian petition targeting Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, yet no host government has moved to declare a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. The Trump administration’s own recall of dozens of career ambassadors has left more than half of U.S. posts vacant, limiting potential targets for reciprocal expulsions. Countries such as Brazil and Canada have instead pursued targeted visa measures or formal summonses while preserving formal diplomatic channels. This pattern aligns with the historical infrequency of such steps against U.S. representatives and supports the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability for no expulsion by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$33,023Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic frictions have surfaced in several bilateral relationships, including U.S. visa actions against Brazil’s envoy and a Canadian petition targeting Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, yet no host government has moved to declare a U.S. ambassador persona non grata in recent months. The Trump administration’s own recall of dozens of career ambassadors has left more than half of U.S. posts vacant, limiting potential targets for reciprocal expulsions. Countries such as Brazil and Canada have instead pursued targeted visa measures or formal summonses while preserving formal diplomatic channels. This pattern aligns with the historical infrequency of such steps against U.S. representatives and supports the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability for no expulsion by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання