Following Ali Khamenei’s death in early March 2026 amid US-Israeli strikes, his official X account has continued under the martyred-leader designation yet operates at sharply reduced volume. Historical weekly tallies since the succession show zero to four posts in non-crisis periods, aligning with the market’s 70 percent implied probability on fewer than five posts for May 19–26. No diplomatic summits, military escalations, or domestic Iranian political deadlines fall inside the resolution window that would normally trigger higher output. The next most favored range, five to nine posts, receives the remaining notable share only as a hedge against possible routine statements or minor regional developments. Traders therefore price elevated buckets at low levels, treating sustained low activity as the baseline absent fresh triggers.