Incumbent Karen Bass leads recent polls at around 25 percent support in a crowded field of 14 candidates for the June 2 nonpartisan primary, with Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman trailing in the low double digits and roughly 40 percent of voters still undecided. Los Angeles city rules require a majority for an outright win to avoid a November runoff, a threshold no serious contender has approached in any published survey. Fundraising momentum for challengers and a recent debate have not produced the consolidation needed to push any candidate near 50 percent, consistent with historical patterns in fragmented Los Angeles mayoral contests. Traders therefore assign just 9 percent probability to an outright first-round victory.