Republicans currently defend a narrow House majority entering the 2026 midterms under a Republican president, with forecasts centering expected GOP seats near 200-210 amid Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling of roughly six points. Midterm penalties against the president's party, elevated Republican retirements, and competitive battlegrounds identified by ratings like Cook Political Report sustain uncertainty, while mid-decade redistricting in states such as Texas has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps. Recent special election trends and primary results reinforce trader expectations of net Democratic gains without decisive separation yet. Late-cycle shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or major campaign events could widen the range of likely outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 25%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 Обс.
$285,663 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
25%
190-194
16%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
1%
225-229
1%
230+
3%
Below 190 25%
190-194 16%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,663 Обс.
$285,663 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$32,408 Обс.
25%
190-194
$13,637 Обс.
16%
195-199
$32,609 Обс.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Обс.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Обс.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Обс.
9%
215-219
$11,450 Обс.
7%
220-224
$59,213 Обс.
1%
225-229
$24,724 Обс.
1%
230+
$30,975 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently defend a narrow House majority entering the 2026 midterms under a Republican president, with forecasts centering expected GOP seats near 200-210 amid Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling of roughly six points. Midterm penalties against the president's party, elevated Republican retirements, and competitive battlegrounds identified by ratings like Cook Political Report sustain uncertainty, while mid-decade redistricting in states such as Texas has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps. Recent special election trends and primary results reinforce trader expectations of net Democratic gains without decisive separation yet. Late-cycle shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or major campaign events could widen the range of likely outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$285,663Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans currently defend a narrow House majority entering the 2026 midterms under a Republican president, with forecasts centering expected GOP seats near 200-210 amid Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling of roughly six points. Midterm penalties against the president's party, elevated Republican retirements, and competitive battlegrounds identified by ratings like Cook Political Report sustain uncertainty, while mid-decade redistricting in states such as Texas has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps. Recent special election trends and primary results reinforce trader expectations of net Democratic gains without decisive separation yet. Late-cycle shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or major campaign events could widen the range of likely outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$285,663Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans currently defend a narrow House majority entering the 2026 midterms under a Republican president, with forecasts centering expected GOP seats near 200-210 amid Democratic advantages in generic ballot polling of roughly six points. Midterm penalties against the president's party, elevated Republican retirements, and competitive battlegrounds identified by ratings like Cook Political Report sustain uncertainty, while mid-decade redistricting in states such as Texas has modestly bolstered GOP-leaning maps. Recent special election trends and primary results reinforce trader expectations of net Democratic gains without decisive separation yet. Late-cycle shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns in swing districts, or major campaign events could widen the range of likely outcomes reflected in current market pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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