Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 Обс.
$285,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
25%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
7%
220-224
9%
225-229
7%
230+
3%
Below 190 25%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
200-204 11.6%
$285,839 Обс.
$285,839 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$32,488 Обс.
25%
190-194
$13,637 Обс.
15%
195-199
$32,609 Обс.
12%
200-204
$24,750 Обс.
12%
205-209
$40,227 Обс.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Обс.
9%
215-219
$11,450 Обс.
7%
220-224
$59,267 Обс.
9%
225-229
$24,767 Обс.
7%
230+
$30,975 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$285,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$285,839Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Democrats holding a consistent 5-7 point generic ballot lead, aligning with historical patterns where the president's party typically loses House seats in midterms. This environment, combined with a narrow Republican starting majority near 218 seats, dozens of competitive districts, and mid-decade redistricting shifts in states like Texas and California, drives trader expectations of net Republican losses. The elevated probability on bins below 200 seats reflects uncertainty over turnout, candidate recruitment, and economic conditions that could widen or narrow Democratic gains. Key differentiators among outcomes include the final impact of open seats from retirements and the resolution of battleground races rated as toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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