This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra holds the lead in the 2026 California governor race at 50.9% amid the June 2 top-two primary, driven by his sharp rise after Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal amid misconduct allegations. The former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary has consolidated Democratic support in recent Emerson and Kreate Strategies polling, pulling ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer at 31.6% despite Steyer’s extensive self-funding. Republican Steve Hilton sits at 9.8% as the leading GOP contender, though the state’s Democratic tilt limits his general-election prospects. Chad Bianco and Katie Porter trail further at 2.9% and 2.0%. The market reflects trader consensus on Becerra’s momentum heading into the final pre-primary weeks, with outcomes hinging on which two candidates advance to November.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Xavier Becerra holds the lead in the 2026 California governor race at 50.9% amid the June 2 top-two primary, driven by his sharp rise after Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal amid misconduct allegations. The former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary has consolidated Democratic support in recent Emerson and Kreate Strategies polling, pulling ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer at 31.6% despite Steyer’s extensive self-funding. Republican Steve Hilton sits at 9.8% as the leading GOP contender, though the state’s Democratic tilt limits his general-election prospects. Chad Bianco and Katie Porter trail further at 2.9% and 2.0%. The market reflects trader consensus on Becerra’s momentum heading into the final pre-primary weeks, with outcomes hinging on which two candidates advance to November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 16 2026
Tom Steyer’s chances decline as Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race
Tom Steyer drops to 32%5%
Market prices show Tom Steyer’s support falling from 37% to 32% while Xavier Becerra’s rises to 51%, indicating shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics ahead of the primary.
May 15 2026
Final market prices show Xavier Becerra as frontrunner with 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
By the end of the analysis window, Xavier Becerra held a market price of 51%, solidifying his position as the leading candidate, while other candidates' prices declined significantly, reflecting market consensus on likely election outcome.
May 15 2026
Xavier Becerra leads California governor market at 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%10%
By mid-May, Becerra had solidified his lead in the market, reflecting his status as the frontrunner in the race.
May 13 2026
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support at 55%
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
Xavier Becerra's market price peaked at 55%, indicating strong market confidence in his chances to win the governorship, likely due to positive campaign developments or polling data.
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%24%
Becerra's market price surged from near zero to over 50% as his campaign gained traction late in the analysis window, reflecting increased voter support and campaign activity.
May 12 2026
Tom Steyer’s polling declines after peak, Becerra rises
Tom Steyer plunges to 47%23%
Steyer’s market price dropped from 70% to 47% while Becerra’s rose, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics as the primary approached.
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly, reflecting increased support and momentum in the race, possibly due to campaign efforts and shifts after Swalwell's exit.
May 10 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%23%
Following Swalwell's exit, Becerra's market price surged as he absorbed some of the former candidate's support, reflecting renewed voter interest in his candidacy.
May 5 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 39%11%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained traction late in the race, reflected in a significant price increase, as he consolidated support from former Swalwell backers and positioned himself as a leading Democratic candidate.
May 4 2026
Xavier Becerra's campaign surges ahead in final weeks before primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 41%13%
Becerra's price rose sharply, reflecting increased support and campaign momentum as the primary approached.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton's profile among Republican voters, briefly increasing his market price, though it remained low overall.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in polls amid Democratic field uncertainty
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra’s market price rose sharply as he gained traction late in the primary season, capitalizing on the fragmented Democratic vote and Swalwell’s exit.
Apr 22 2026
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market prices for Democratic candidates.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%28%
Becerra's market price surged significantly, possibly due to campaign developments or endorsements, marking a recovery from earlier lows.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra's support surges in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply from near zero to over 27%, reflecting increased polling support or campaign momentum, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events boosting his profile.
Apr 18 2026
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price positively despite the crowded field.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 15 2026
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, boosting Hilton's profile and market price in the governor's race, especially among Republican voters.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer's polling peaks amid heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%50%
Tom Steyer's polling surged to a peak of 70% following his extensive advertising campaign, marking his highest market price. However, this peak was short-lived as subsequent events and competition tempered his lead.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 59%43%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, causing a significant price jump in the market, though he did not secure a clear lead.
Apr 15 2026
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats feared their large number of candidates could split votes, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in the top-two primary system, impacting market prices for GOP candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer peaks in polling after heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Steyer’s market price surged to a peak of 70% reflecting his dominant ad campaign and perceived frontrunner status in the Democratic field.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer's ad blitz peaks, boosting his polling numbers
Tom Steyer surges to 70%54%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads led to a peak in his market price, reflecting increased voter attention and support during this period.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Apr 10 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 59%41%
Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and chances, dominating media presence and influencing market prices despite criticism of trying to buy the election.
Mar 29 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 49%31%
Steyer's unprecedented spending on ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a top contender despite no prior elected office experience.
Mar 12 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan plunges to 17%29%
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, gaining initial market attention but later losing ground as the race evolved.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Mar 10 2026
Polling shows tight race among Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco
Late winter polling indicated a close contest among Democratic candidates Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting market volatility and uncertainty.
Mar 1 2026
Tom Steyer ramps up spending in California governor race
Tom Steyer rises to 20%2%
Billionaire Tom Steyer increased his campaign spending dramatically, saturating media markets with ads, which boosted his polling and market price despite not breaking away as a clear frontrunner.
Feb 23 2026
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends campaign
Xavier Becerra dips to 0%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading him to suspend his gubernatorial bid and later resign from Congress, causing his market price to plummet to near zero.
Feb 23 2026
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, causing a sharp collapse in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates, notably benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Feb 11 2026
California Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election under California's top-two primary system. This raised the profile of Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, affecting their market prices.
Jan 26 2026
Rep. Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor's race amid sexual assault allegations
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, which he denies, and announced his resignation from Congress. His exit reshaped the Democratic field, allowing rivals like Steyer and Porter to vie for his supporters, impacting market prices for those candidates.
Jan 26 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom on homelessness and crime, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market dynamics.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Jan 15 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan announced his candidacy positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, briefly impacting his market price before declining.
Jan 12 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, which introduced a new contender and influenced market prices for his outcome.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Tom Steyer begins heavy ad spending in California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer started a massive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his candidacy, which increased his market price significantly.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Nov 17 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor's race
Tom Steyer began spending heavily on TV and radio ads, outspending rivals by a large margin to boost his profile in the Democratic primary. This spending spree raised his polling numbers but did not establish him as a clear frontrunner, affecting market prices for his candidacy.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Oct 10 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
Matt Mahan, known for his moderate Democratic stance and criticism of Governor Newsom, entered the crowded governor's race, positioning himself as a fighter on homelessness and crime. His entry added a new dynamic to the Democratic field and influenced market perceptions of his chances.
Oct 10 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer begins massive ad spending in governor race
Steyer used his personal fortune to saturate media with ads, becoming the top spender and a leading Democratic candidate, impacting his polling and market price.
Oct 10 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Eric Swalwell, a Democrat and former House manager in Trump's impeachment trial, announced his candidacy for California governor, initially boosting his profile and impacting the market by adding a prominent contender.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra holds the lead in the 2026 California governor race at 50.9% amid the June 2 top-two primary, driven by his sharp rise after Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal amid misconduct allegations. The former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary has consolidated Democratic support in recent Emerson and Kreate Strategies polling, pulling ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer at 31.6% despite Steyer’s extensive self-funding. Republican Steve Hilton sits at 9.8% as the leading GOP contender, though the state’s Democratic tilt limits his general-election prospects. Chad Bianco and Katie Porter trail further at 2.9% and 2.0%. The market reflects trader consensus on Becerra’s momentum heading into the final pre-primary weeks, with outcomes hinging on which two candidates advance to November.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Xavier Becerra holds the lead in the 2026 California governor race at 50.9% amid the June 2 top-two primary, driven by his sharp rise after Eric Swalwell’s withdrawal amid misconduct allegations. The former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary has consolidated Democratic support in recent Emerson and Kreate Strategies polling, pulling ahead of billionaire Tom Steyer at 31.6% despite Steyer’s extensive self-funding. Republican Steve Hilton sits at 9.8% as the leading GOP contender, though the state’s Democratic tilt limits his general-election prospects. Chad Bianco and Katie Porter trail further at 2.9% and 2.0%. The market reflects trader consensus on Becerra’s momentum heading into the final pre-primary weeks, with outcomes hinging on which two candidates advance to November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
May 16 2026
Tom Steyer’s chances decline as Xavier Becerra rises in California governor race
Tom Steyer drops to 32%5%
Market prices show Tom Steyer’s support falling from 37% to 32% while Xavier Becerra’s rises to 51%, indicating shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics ahead of the primary.
May 15 2026
Final market prices show Xavier Becerra as frontrunner with 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%12%
By the end of the analysis window, Xavier Becerra held a market price of 51%, solidifying his position as the leading candidate, while other candidates' prices declined significantly, reflecting market consensus on likely election outcome.
May 15 2026
Xavier Becerra leads California governor market at 51%
Xavier Becerra jumps to 51%10%
By mid-May, Becerra had solidified his lead in the market, reflecting his status as the frontrunner in the race.
May 13 2026
Xavier Becerra reaches peak market support at 55%
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%16%
Xavier Becerra's market price peaked at 55%, indicating strong market confidence in his chances to win the governorship, likely due to positive campaign developments or polling data.
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra's campaign gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%24%
Becerra's market price surged from near zero to over 50% as his campaign gained traction late in the analysis window, reflecting increased voter support and campaign activity.
May 12 2026
Tom Steyer’s polling declines after peak, Becerra rises
Tom Steyer plunges to 47%23%
Steyer’s market price dropped from 70% to 47% while Becerra’s rose, reflecting shifting voter preferences and campaign dynamics as the primary approached.
May 12 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in California governor race polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 55%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly, reflecting increased support and momentum in the race, possibly due to campaign efforts and shifts after Swalwell's exit.
May 10 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race after Swalwell exit
Xavier Becerra surges to 51%23%
Following Swalwell's exit, Becerra's market price surged as he absorbed some of the former candidate's support, reflecting renewed voter interest in his candidacy.
May 5 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra jumps to 39%11%
Xavier Becerra's campaign gained traction late in the race, reflected in a significant price increase, as he consolidated support from former Swalwell backers and positioned himself as a leading Democratic candidate.
May 4 2026
Xavier Becerra's campaign surges ahead in final weeks before primary
Xavier Becerra jumps to 41%13%
Becerra's price rose sharply, reflecting increased support and campaign momentum as the primary approached.
May 1 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 52%21%
Xavier Becerra's market price surged significantly in early May, reflecting increased support or positive developments in his campaign, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events.
Apr 23 2026
President Donald Trump endorses conservative commentator Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 10%5%
Trump's endorsement boosted Hilton's profile among Republican voters, briefly increasing his market price, though it remained low overall.
Apr 23 2026
Democrats fear vote splitting in California governor race could allow two Republicans to advance
With many Democratic candidates running, party insiders expressed concern that the split vote could enable two Republicans to advance to the general election, affecting market prices for both Democratic and Republican candidates.
Apr 23 2026
Xavier Becerra’s campaign gains momentum after policy rollout
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra announced a new health‑care initiative that resonated with voters, lifting his market price from single digits to the low‑30s.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra surges in polls amid Democratic field uncertainty
Xavier Becerra surges to 31%31%
Becerra’s market price rose sharply as he gained traction late in the primary season, capitalizing on the fragmented Democratic vote and Swalwell’s exit.
Apr 22 2026
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats expressed fears that the large number of candidates could split the vote, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance to the general election, impacting market prices for Democratic candidates.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra gains momentum in California governor race
Xavier Becerra surges to 28%28%
Becerra's market price surged significantly, possibly due to campaign developments or endorsements, marking a recovery from earlier lows.
Apr 22 2026
Xavier Becerra's support surges in polls
Xavier Becerra surges to 27%27%
Xavier Becerra's market price rose sharply from near zero to over 27%, reflecting increased polling support or campaign momentum, possibly due to endorsements or campaign events boosting his profile.
Apr 18 2026
Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton rises to 10%4%
Former President Donald Trump endorsed conservative commentator Steve Hilton, boosting Hilton's profile among Republican voters and impacting his market price positively despite the crowded field.
Apr 15 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 70%52%
Tom Steyer launched a massive advertising campaign spending over $115 million, dominating media presence. Despite heavy spending, his polling gains were limited, causing market volatility.
Apr 15 2026
President Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Donald Trump endorsed Republican Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator, boosting Hilton's profile and market price in the governor's race, especially among Republican voters.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends $115 million on TV ads in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 67%55%
Steyer’s unprecedented ad buy dramatically increased his visibility, pushing his market price from the low teens to a peak of 67% within days.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer's polling peaks amid heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%50%
Tom Steyer's polling surged to a peak of 70% following his extensive advertising campaign, marking his highest market price. However, this peak was short-lived as subsequent events and competition tempered his lead.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer spends over $115 million on California governor campaign ads
Tom Steyer surges to 59%43%
Steyer's massive ad spending surge increased his visibility and polling numbers, causing a significant price jump in the market, though he did not secure a clear lead.
Apr 15 2026
Concerns rise over crowded Democratic field splitting vote in California governor race
Democrats feared their large number of candidates could split votes, potentially allowing two Republicans to advance in the top-two primary system, impacting market prices for GOP candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer peaks in polling after heavy ad spending
Tom Steyer surges to 70%21%
Steyer’s market price surged to a peak of 70% reflecting his dominant ad campaign and perceived frontrunner status in the Democratic field.
Apr 15 2026
Tom Steyer's ad blitz peaks, boosting his polling numbers
Tom Steyer surges to 70%54%
Steyer's continued heavy spending on ads led to a peak in his market price, reflecting increased voter attention and support during this period.
Apr 14 2026
Steve Hilton endorsed by President Donald Trump for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 12%6%
Steve Hilton, a conservative commentator and Republican candidate, received a high-profile endorsement from Donald Trump, boosting his profile and market price despite the crowded field.
Apr 10 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer spends heavily in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 59%41%
Tom Steyer launched an extensive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his profile and chances, dominating media presence and influencing market prices despite criticism of trying to buy the election.
Mar 29 2026
Billionaire Tom Steyer's massive ad spending dominates California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 49%31%
Steyer's unprecedented spending on ads significantly raised his profile and market price, positioning him as a top contender despite no prior elected office experience.
Mar 12 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces run for California governor
Matt Mahan plunges to 17%29%
Mahan entered the race positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, gaining initial market attention but later losing ground as the race evolved.
Mar 10 2026
Eric Swalwell withdraws from governor race amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra dips to 1%3%
Swalwell’s abrupt exit removed a leading Democrat, causing a sharp drop in his own odds and a redistribution of support to remaining candidates, notably Tom Steyer.
Mar 10 2026
Polling shows tight race among Steyer, Porter, Hilton, and Bianco
Late winter polling indicated a close contest among Democratic candidates Steyer and Porter and Republicans Hilton and Bianco, reflecting market volatility and uncertainty.
Mar 1 2026
Tom Steyer ramps up spending in California governor race
Tom Steyer rises to 20%2%
Billionaire Tom Steyer increased his campaign spending dramatically, saturating media markets with ads, which boosted his polling and market price despite not breaking away as a clear frontrunner.
Feb 23 2026
Eric Swalwell faces sexual assault allegations and suspends campaign
Xavier Becerra dips to 0%1%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading him to suspend his gubernatorial bid and later resign from Congress, causing his market price to plummet to near zero.
Feb 23 2026
Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Xavier Becerra drops to 0%5%
Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, causing a sharp collapse in his market price and redistributing support among other candidates, notably benefiting Becerra and Steyer.
Feb 20 2026
President Donald Trump endorses Steve Hilton for California governor
Steve Hilton jumps to 9%5%
Trump’s endorsement gave Hilton a credibility boost among Republican voters, lifting his market price modestly.
Feb 11 2026
California Democrats fear vote splitting could allow two Republicans in general election
Democratic insiders expressed concern that the large number of Democratic candidates could split the vote enough to let two Republicans advance to the November general election under California's top-two primary system. This raised the profile of Republican candidates Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, affecting their market prices.
Jan 26 2026
Rep. Eric Swalwell withdraws from California governor's race amid sexual assault allegations
Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following multiple sexual assault allegations, which he denies, and announced his resignation from Congress. His exit reshaped the Democratic field, allowing rivals like Steyer and Porter to vie for his supporters, impacting market prices for those candidates.
Jan 26 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, presenting himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom on homelessness and crime, adding to the crowded Democratic field and influencing market dynamics.
Jan 23 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race as moderate Democrat
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat with a record on homelessness and crime, attracting support from Silicon Valley and business leaders, which influenced his market price.
Jan 15 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Mahan announced his candidacy positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, briefly impacting his market price before declining.
Jan 12 2026
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a moderate Democrat and critic of Newsom, which introduced a new contender and influenced market prices for his outcome.
Dec 1 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan enters California governor race
Matt Mahan plunges to 16%30%
Mahan’s entry added a moderate Democrat to the field, drawing attention from centrist voters and slightly boosting his market price.
Dec 1 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad spending spree in California governor race
Tom Steyer surges to 38%20%
Tom Steyer began a large-scale advertising campaign using his personal fortune to dominate media presence in the governor's race, significantly increasing his visibility and market support despite no clear frontrunner emerging.
Nov 17 2025
Tom Steyer begins heavy ad spending in California governor race
Billionaire Tom Steyer started a massive advertising campaign, spending over $115 million to boost his candidacy, which increased his market price significantly.
Nov 17 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell suspends California governor campaign amid sexual assault allegations
Tom Steyer plunges to 20%29%
Swalwell's campaign collapsed rapidly after multiple sexual assault allegations surfaced, leading to his suspension of the campaign and eventual resignation from Congress. This event caused a significant reshuffling in the race, with his supporters and donors reconsidering their options, impacting the market prices for other candidates.
Nov 17 2025
Billionaire Tom Steyer launches massive ad campaign in governor's race
Tom Steyer began spending heavily on TV and radio ads, outspending rivals by a large margin to boost his profile in the Democratic primary. This spending spree raised his polling numbers but did not establish him as a clear frontrunner, affecting market prices for his candidacy.
Oct 15 2025
Rep. Eric Swalwell launches campaign for California governor
Xavier Becerra plunges to 5%45%
Swalwell announced his candidacy on a national talk show, positioning himself as a fighter against rising costs, which gave his name an early market presence.
Oct 10 2025
San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan announces candidacy for California governor
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Billionaire Tom Steyer begins massive ad spending in governor race
Steyer used his personal fortune to saturate media with ads, becoming the top spender and a leading Democratic candidate, impacting his polling and market price.
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Rep. Eric Swalwell announces bid for California governor
Eric Swalwell, a Democrat and former House manager in Trump's impeachment trial, announced his candidacy for California governor, initially boosting his profile and impacting the market by adding a prominent contender.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання
«Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 23 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Ксав'єр Бесерра» з 51%, далі «Том Стейєр» з 32%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.
Станом на сьогодні, «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» згенерував $22.3 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Oct 9, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.
Щоб торгувати на «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії», перегляньте 23 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.
Поточний фаворит для «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» — «Ксав'єр Бесерра» з 51%. Наступний — «Том Стейєр» з 32%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.
Правила вирішення для «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.
Так. Вам не потрібно торгувати, щоб бути в курсі. Ця сторінка служить трекером наживо для «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії». Ймовірності результатів оновлюються в реальному часі з новими угодами. Збережіть сторінку та перегляньте коментарі інших трейдерів.
Шанси Polymarket встановлюються реальними трейдерами, які вкладають реальні гроші, що сприяє точним прогнозам. З $22.3 million торгового обсягу на «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» ці ціни агрегують колективні знання тисяч учасників. Polymarket має місячний показник точності 94%. Для актуальної статистики точності відвідайте сторінку точності на Polymarket.
Щоб зробити першу угоду на «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії», зареєструйте безкоштовний акаунт на Polymarket та поповніть його криптою, кредитною чи дебетовою карткою або банківським переказом. Після поповнення поверніться на цю сторінку, оберіть результат, введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ви новачок на ринках прогнозів, натисніть «Як це працює» вгорі будь-якої сторінки Polymarket.
На Polymarket ціна кожного результату відображає ймовірність ринку. Ціна 51¢ для «Ксав'єр Бесерра» на ринку «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» означає, що трейдери колективно оцінюють шанс цього результату приблизно в 51%. Якщо ви купите акції «Так» за 51¢ і результат правильний, ви отримаєте $1.00 за акцію — прибуток 49¢ за акцію.
Ринок «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» запланований до вирішення приблизно Nov 3, 2026. Торгівля залишатиметься відкритою, а шанси продовжуватимуть змінюватися з появою нової інформації до цієї дати.
Ринок «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії» має активна спільнота з 60 коментарями, де трейдери діляться аналізом, обговорюють результати та останні новини. Прокрутіть вниз до розділу коментарів. Ви також можете фільтрувати за «Топ власники» або переглянути вкладку «Активність» для стрічки угод у реальному часі.
Polymarket — найбільший ринок прогнозів у світі, де ви можете бути в курсі подій та заробляти на знаннях реальних подій. Трейдери купують і продають акції на результати тем від політики та виборів до крипто, фінансів, спорту, технологій та культури, включаючи ринки, як «Переможець виборів губернатора Каліфорнії». Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання