Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in the 2026 California governor race, with the latest PPIC poll showing 60% support for Becerra against 38% for Hilton among likely voters. This aligns with trader consensus clustering probabilities on Becerra margins of 15-25 points. Democratic registration advantages, strong partisan loyalty, and Becerra’s consolidation of primary support drive the positioning, while independents lean Democratic and affordability concerns rank as the top voter priority. Hilton performs better in the Central Valley but trails elsewhere. Limited recent movement in polls reflects stable fundamentals, though shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns, or late campaign events on cost-of-living issues could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCalifornia Governor Election Margin of Victory
California Governor Election Margin of Victory
Becerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
11%
Becerra 35-40%
5%
Becerra 30-35%
10%
Becerra 25-30%
18%
Becerra 20-25%
22%
Becerra 15-20%
19%
Becerra 10-15%
10%
Becerra 0-10%
3%
Hilton Wins
<1%
Becerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Becerra 40%+
$705 Обс.
11%
Becerra 35-40%
$294 Обс.
5%
Becerra 30-35%
$185 Обс.
10%
Becerra 25-30%
$469 Обс.
18%
Becerra 20-25%
$682 Обс.
22%
Becerra 15-20%
$836 Обс.
19%
Becerra 10-15%
$248 Обс.
10%
Becerra 0-10%
$146 Обс.
3%
Hilton Wins
$178 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in the 2026 California governor race, with the latest PPIC poll showing 60% support for Becerra against 38% for Hilton among likely voters. This aligns with trader consensus clustering probabilities on Becerra margins of 15-25 points. Democratic registration advantages, strong partisan loyalty, and Becerra’s consolidation of primary support drive the positioning, while independents lean Democratic and affordability concerns rank as the top voter priority. Hilton performs better in the Central Valley but trails elsewhere. Limited recent movement in polls reflects stable fundamentals, though shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns, or late campaign events on cost-of-living issues could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,743Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in the 2026 California governor race, with the latest PPIC poll showing 60% support for Becerra against 38% for Hilton among likely voters. This aligns with trader consensus clustering probabilities on Becerra margins of 15-25 points. Democratic registration advantages, strong partisan loyalty, and Becerra’s consolidation of primary support drive the positioning, while independents lean Democratic and affordability concerns rank as the top voter priority. Hilton performs better in the Central Valley but trails elsewhere. Limited recent movement in polls reflects stable fundamentals, though shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns, or late campaign events on cost-of-living issues could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,743Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Xavier Becerra holds a consistent lead over Steve Hilton in the 2026 California governor race, with the latest PPIC poll showing 60% support for Becerra against 38% for Hilton among likely voters. This aligns with trader consensus clustering probabilities on Becerra margins of 15-25 points. Democratic registration advantages, strong partisan loyalty, and Becerra’s consolidation of primary support drive the positioning, while independents lean Democratic and affordability concerns rank as the top voter priority. Hilton performs better in the Central Valley but trails elsewhere. Limited recent movement in polls reflects stable fundamentals, though shifts in economic sentiment, turnout patterns, or late campaign events on cost-of-living issues could widen or narrow the final margin before November 3.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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