Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a strong structural edge in California's 16th district, a Silicon Valley seat with a D+25 partisan voter index and heavy Democratic registration. His June 2026 top-two primary performance exceeded 75 percent against Republican Peter Sundin Soulé, underscoring limited GOP organizational strength and fundraising gaps. All major forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that favors substantial Democratic margins while spreading probability across several victory bands. Low national attention and the absence of competitive polling keep the exact margin fluid. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events could widen or narrow the final spread without altering the seat's fundamental outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-16 House Election Margin of Victory
CA-16 House Election Margin of Victory
Democrat 60-65% 42%
Democrat 50-55% 42%
Democrat 35-40% 42%
Democrat 0-25% 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
42%
Democrat 60-65%
42%
Democrat 55-60%
41%
Democrat 50-55%
42%
Democrat 45-50%
41%
Democrat 40-45%
41%
Democrat 35-40%
42%
Democrat 25-35%
41%
Democrat 0-25%
42%
Republican Wins
38%
Democrat 60-65% 42%
Democrat 50-55% 42%
Democrat 35-40% 42%
Democrat 0-25% 42%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 65%+
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 Обс.
41%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 Обс.
41%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 Обс.
41%
Democrat 35-40%
$0 Обс.
42%
Democrat 25-35%
$0 Обс.
41%
Democrat 0-25%
$0 Обс.
42%
Republican Wins
$0 Обс.
38%
The 2026 CA-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a strong structural edge in California's 16th district, a Silicon Valley seat with a D+25 partisan voter index and heavy Democratic registration. His June 2026 top-two primary performance exceeded 75 percent against Republican Peter Sundin Soulé, underscoring limited GOP organizational strength and fundraising gaps. All major forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that favors substantial Democratic margins while spreading probability across several victory bands. Low national attention and the absence of competitive polling keep the exact margin fluid. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events could widen or narrow the final spread without altering the seat's fundamental outlook.
The 2026 CA-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a strong structural edge in California's 16th district, a Silicon Valley seat with a D+25 partisan voter index and heavy Democratic registration. His June 2026 top-two primary performance exceeded 75 percent against Republican Peter Sundin Soulé, underscoring limited GOP organizational strength and fundraising gaps. All major forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that favors substantial Democratic margins while spreading probability across several victory bands. Low national attention and the absence of competitive polling keep the exact margin fluid. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events could widen or narrow the final spread without altering the seat's fundamental outlook.
The 2026 CA-16 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-16 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 3:31 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo holds a strong structural edge in California's 16th district, a Silicon Valley seat with a D+25 partisan voter index and heavy Democratic registration. His June 2026 top-two primary performance exceeded 75 percent against Republican Peter Sundin Soulé, underscoring limited GOP organizational strength and fundraising gaps. All major forecasters rate the November general election Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that favors substantial Democratic margins while spreading probability across several victory bands. Low national attention and the absence of competitive polling keep the exact margin fluid. Late-cycle shifts in turnout, national economic conditions, or candidate-specific events could widen or narrow the final spread without altering the seat's fundamental outlook.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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