Anthropic's planned November 2026 IPO at a targeted $2 trillion valuation drives the tight market-implied odds, with trader consensus split between it (47.4%) and SpaceX (45.5%). Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate has surged past $65 billion toward $110 billion-plus projections, supported by massive compute investments and a confidential S-1 filing, positioning it to eclipse SpaceX's June 2026 debut that raised a record $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect its February merger into SpaceX, folding its Grok assets into the public entity's AI segment amid ongoing execution risks. Key swing factors include Anthropic's final pricing amid high infrastructure costs and any late 2026 market volatility that could compress multiples for either listing.