Skip to main content
icon for Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?
Клімат і наука·Weather

Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?

icon for Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?
Клімат і наука·Weather

Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

14–16 31%

11–13 26%

17–19 21%

8–10 10.0%

Polymarket

$1,305,226 Обс.

14–16 31%

11–13 26%

17–19 21%

8–10 10.0%

Polymarket

$1,305,226 Обс.

5–7

$70,068 Обс.

1%

8–10

$129,521 Обс.

10%

11–13

$410,431 Обс.

26%

14–16

$183,942 Обс.

31%

17–19

$206,159 Обс.

21%

20+

$62,166 Обс.

10%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalog confirms five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Japan on April 20, putting the year on pace for about 13–14 total amid a quiet May. Trader consensus favors 14–16 (30.5% implied probability) closely trailed by 11–13 (26.0%), reflecting historical averages of roughly 16 M7+ annually from long-term global records, with natural year-to-year fluctuations due to clustered releases along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Distinguishing factors include potential for aftershock sequences or strain buildup on major faults, though short-term prediction remains impossible; ongoing USGS monitoring will track H2 activity against baseline tectonic rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$1,305,226
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS seismic catalog confirms five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, including a M7.5 near Tonga on March 24 and M7.4 off Japan on April 20, putting the year on pace for about 13–14 total amid a quiet May. Trader consensus favors 14–16 (30.5% implied probability) closely trailed by 11–13 (26.0%), reflecting historical averages of roughly 16 M7+ annually from long-term global records, with natural year-to-year fluctuations due to clustered releases along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Distinguishing factors include potential for aftershock sequences or strain buildup on major faults, though short-term prediction remains impossible; ongoing USGS monitoring will track H2 activity against baseline tectonic rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Обсяг
$1,305,226
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 7 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «14–16» з 31%, далі «11–13» з 26%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?» згенерував $1.3 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Dec 31, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?», перегляньте 7 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?» — «14–16» з 31%. Наступний — «11–13» з 26%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Скільки 7,0 або вище землетрусів у 2026 році?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.