Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a peak near 38°C on August 18 under a stable subtropical ridge with residual warm advection from North Africa. Persistent clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation favor rapid surface heating, while Madrid’s urban heat island may nudge readings slightly higher than surrounding rural stations. Recent multiple heatwaves have elevated the seasonal baseline, supporting the tight clustering between 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Minor forecast spread arises from exact timing of maximum temperatures, subtle moisture variations, and official station measurement protocols. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
38°C 41%
39°C 33%
37°C 17%
40°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
2%
37°C
17%
38°C
41%
39°C
33%
40°C
6%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 41%
39°C 33%
37°C 17%
40°C 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$168 Обс.
<1%
35°C
$168 Обс.
1%
36°C
$193 Обс.
2%
37°C
$250 Обс.
17%
38°C
$273 Обс.
41%
39°C
$254 Обс.
33%
40°C
$271 Обс.
6%
41°C
$170 Обс.
1%
42°C
$10 Обс.
<1%
43°C
$168 Обс.
<1%
44°C or higher
$263 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a peak near 38°C on August 18 under a stable subtropical ridge with residual warm advection from North Africa. Persistent clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation favor rapid surface heating, while Madrid’s urban heat island may nudge readings slightly higher than surrounding rural stations. Recent multiple heatwaves have elevated the seasonal baseline, supporting the tight clustering between 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Minor forecast spread arises from exact timing of maximum temperatures, subtle moisture variations, and official station measurement protocols. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,188Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a peak near 38°C on August 18 under a stable subtropical ridge with residual warm advection from North Africa. Persistent clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation favor rapid surface heating, while Madrid’s urban heat island may nudge readings slightly higher than surrounding rural stations. Recent multiple heatwaves have elevated the seasonal baseline, supporting the tight clustering between 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Minor forecast spread arises from exact timing of maximum temperatures, subtle moisture variations, and official station measurement protocols. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,188Дата завершення
Aug 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest AEMET and ensemble model guidance points to a peak near 38°C on August 18 under a stable subtropical ridge with residual warm advection from North Africa. Persistent clear skies, light winds, and strong daytime insolation favor rapid surface heating, while Madrid’s urban heat island may nudge readings slightly higher than surrounding rural stations. Recent multiple heatwaves have elevated the seasonal baseline, supporting the tight clustering between 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Minor forecast spread arises from exact timing of maximum temperatures, subtle moisture variations, and official station measurement protocols. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise maximum.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання