Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF consensus show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with minimal cloud cover and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near 33–35°C on August 16. This setup favors strong solar heating over the urban heat island, pushing the official station reading (typically Retiro Park) toward the upper end of seasonal norms, where August averages reach about 32°C. Minor model spread centers on exact timing of any weak Atlantic moisture intrusion that could trim the peak by 1°C, keeping 34°C and 35°C tightly matched in trader pricing as the most probable outcomes. Updated runs through August 15 will refine boundary-layer mixing and confirm whether conditions trend slightly warmer or stabilize near climatology.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
33°C 11%
36°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
11%
34°C
42%
35°C
39%
36°C
9%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 42%
35°C 39%
33°C 11%
36°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$309 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$153 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$122 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$33 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$29 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$76 Обс.
3%
33°C
$317 Обс.
11%
34°C
$664 Обс.
42%
35°C
$2,399 Обс.
39%
36°C
$358 Обс.
9%
37°C or higher
$128 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF consensus show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with minimal cloud cover and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near 33–35°C on August 16. This setup favors strong solar heating over the urban heat island, pushing the official station reading (typically Retiro Park) toward the upper end of seasonal norms, where August averages reach about 32°C. Minor model spread centers on exact timing of any weak Atlantic moisture intrusion that could trim the peak by 1°C, keeping 34°C and 35°C tightly matched in trader pricing as the most probable outcomes. Updated runs through August 15 will refine boundary-layer mixing and confirm whether conditions trend slightly warmer or stabilize near climatology.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,589Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF consensus show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with minimal cloud cover and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near 33–35°C on August 16. This setup favors strong solar heating over the urban heat island, pushing the official station reading (typically Retiro Park) toward the upper end of seasonal norms, where August averages reach about 32°C. Minor model spread centers on exact timing of any weak Atlantic moisture intrusion that could trim the peak by 1°C, keeping 34°C and 35°C tightly matched in trader pricing as the most probable outcomes. Updated runs through August 15 will refine boundary-layer mixing and confirm whether conditions trend slightly warmer or stabilize near climatology.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,589Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from agencies including the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and ECMWF consensus show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with minimal cloud cover and light winds, supporting daytime maxima near 33–35°C on August 16. This setup favors strong solar heating over the urban heat island, pushing the official station reading (typically Retiro Park) toward the upper end of seasonal norms, where August averages reach about 32°C. Minor model spread centers on exact timing of any weak Atlantic moisture intrusion that could trim the peak by 1°C, keeping 34°C and 35°C tightly matched in trader pricing as the most probable outcomes. Updated runs through August 15 will refine boundary-layer mixing and confirm whether conditions trend slightly warmer or stabilize near climatology.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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