Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 45%
29°C 25%
31°C 19%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
25%
30°C
45%
31°C
19%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 45%
29°C 25%
31°C 19%
28°C 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$222 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$121 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$50 Обс.
1%
27°C
$152 Обс.
1%
28°C
$488 Обс.
9%
29°C
$72 Обс.
25%
30°C
$144 Обс.
45%
31°C
$10 Обс.
19%
32°C
$38 Обс.
5%
33°C
$71 Обс.
2%
34°C or higher
$30 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,398Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,398Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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