Recent Met Office guidance positions London’s August 14 maximum near 31 °C as high pressure weakens and cooler maritime air begins to influence southern England following the August 13 peak. Ensemble model spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer mixing nevertheless leave room for 32–33 °C outcomes, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities. Key variables include the exact timing of the high’s retreat, local wind direction modulating advection, and the urban heat-island amplification typical of central London stations. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will narrow these uncertainties ahead of resolution.