Recent short-range forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a building high-pressure ridge over western Europe that should deliver peak afternoon temperatures near 35°C in Paris on August 12, supporting the market’s heaviest weighting on the 34–36 °C range. Current model runs show limited spread, with ensemble guidance favoring modest daytime warming from the 32–33 °C readings observed on August 10–11, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could trim the maximum by 1 °C. Historical August climatology places Paris mean highs around 25 °C, so the present anomaly reflects both seasonal persistence and the broader warm signal projected for late summer. Traders appear to be pricing the narrow uncertainty band between the latest deterministic runs and the still-evolving 48-hour updates expected from the National Meteorological Service.