Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs indicate the Paris overnight minimum on August 12 most likely settling between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling while boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat-island effect at the official Parc Montsouris station anchor the central outcomes near 18 °C. Small differences in exact frontal timing, nocturnal cloud thickness, and wind speed create the narrow spread separating 17 °C, 18 °C, and 19 °C. Historical August climatology (station normals near 15–16 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air advection keep lower outcomes at low probability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–36 hours will refine these tightly bunched market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
19°C 43%
18°C 41%
17°C 9%
20°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
5%
17°C
9%
18°C
41%
19°C
43%
20°C
8%
21°C
3%
22°C
6%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 43%
18°C 41%
17°C 9%
20°C 8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
$23 Обс.
1%
15°C
$157 Обс.
2%
16°C
$46 Обс.
5%
17°C
$262 Обс.
9%
18°C
$58 Обс.
41%
19°C
$391 Обс.
43%
20°C
$11 Обс.
8%
21°C
$26 Обс.
3%
22°C
$25 Обс.
6%
23°C
$10 Обс.
1%
24°C or higher
$11 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs indicate the Paris overnight minimum on August 12 most likely settling between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling while boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat-island effect at the official Parc Montsouris station anchor the central outcomes near 18 °C. Small differences in exact frontal timing, nocturnal cloud thickness, and wind speed create the narrow spread separating 17 °C, 18 °C, and 19 °C. Historical August climatology (station normals near 15–16 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air advection keep lower outcomes at low probability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–36 hours will refine these tightly bunched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,019Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs indicate the Paris overnight minimum on August 12 most likely settling between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling while boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat-island effect at the official Parc Montsouris station anchor the central outcomes near 18 °C. Small differences in exact frontal timing, nocturnal cloud thickness, and wind speed create the narrow spread separating 17 °C, 18 °C, and 19 °C. Historical August climatology (station normals near 15–16 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air advection keep lower outcomes at low probability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–36 hours will refine these tightly bunched market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,019Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ECMWF ensemble and Météo-France high-resolution model runs indicate the Paris overnight minimum on August 12 most likely settling between 17–19 °C under a weakening high-pressure regime, moderate westerly flow, and variable cloud cover. These conditions limit radiative cooling while boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat-island effect at the official Parc Montsouris station anchor the central outcomes near 18 °C. Small differences in exact frontal timing, nocturnal cloud thickness, and wind speed create the narrow spread separating 17 °C, 18 °C, and 19 °C. Historical August climatology (station normals near 15–16 °C) and the absence of strong cold-air advection keep lower outcomes at low probability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–36 hours will refine these tightly bunched market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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