Recent model consensus and August climatology underpin the tight clustering around 29–30°C implied probabilities for Shanghai’s August 11 high. Subtropical high pressure and residual East Asian monsoon moisture typically support daytime maxima near 31–32°C, yet increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and onshore flow frequently cap peaks 1–3°C lower. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer humidity amplify small forecast differences, while ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs for the 48–72-hour window highlight sensitivity to convective timing and any weak frontal passage. These factors keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant in trader assessments, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C+ only if clearer, drier conditions materialize.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?
29°C 33%
30°C 32%
28°C 21%
31°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
21%
29°C
33%
30°C
32%
31°C
15%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
29°C 33%
30°C 32%
28°C 21%
31°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
23°C or below
$361 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$361 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$135 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$135 Обс.
1%
27°C
$239 Обс.
3%
28°C
$220 Обс.
21%
29°C
$138 Обс.
33%
30°C
$239 Обс.
32%
31°C
$91 Обс.
15%
32°C
$23 Обс.
4%
33°C or higher
$141 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and August climatology underpin the tight clustering around 29–30°C implied probabilities for Shanghai’s August 11 high. Subtropical high pressure and residual East Asian monsoon moisture typically support daytime maxima near 31–32°C, yet increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and onshore flow frequently cap peaks 1–3°C lower. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer humidity amplify small forecast differences, while ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs for the 48–72-hour window highlight sensitivity to convective timing and any weak frontal passage. These factors keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant in trader assessments, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C+ only if clearer, drier conditions materialize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$2,083Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus and August climatology underpin the tight clustering around 29–30°C implied probabilities for Shanghai’s August 11 high. Subtropical high pressure and residual East Asian monsoon moisture typically support daytime maxima near 31–32°C, yet increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and onshore flow frequently cap peaks 1–3°C lower. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer humidity amplify small forecast differences, while ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs for the 48–72-hour window highlight sensitivity to convective timing and any weak frontal passage. These factors keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant in trader assessments, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C+ only if clearer, drier conditions materialize.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$2,083Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus and August climatology underpin the tight clustering around 29–30°C implied probabilities for Shanghai’s August 11 high. Subtropical high pressure and residual East Asian monsoon moisture typically support daytime maxima near 31–32°C, yet increased cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and onshore flow frequently cap peaks 1–3°C lower. Urban heat-island effects and boundary-layer humidity amplify small forecast differences, while ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs for the 48–72-hour window highlight sensitivity to convective timing and any weak frontal passage. These factors keep 28–30°C outcomes dominant in trader assessments, with lower probabilities assigned to 31°C+ only if clearer, drier conditions materialize.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання