Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate minimum temperatures in Paris on August 11 clustering near 17–18°C, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology (historical lows averaging 15–16°C) while reflecting modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer conditions and potential for slight warming from Atlantic flow. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these outcomes given the narrow spread across recent model runs, with lower probabilities for 15–16°C or 19°C+ reflecting tail risks from forecast shifts expected in updated guidance over the next 48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 11?
17°C 38%
18°C 30%
19°C 20%
16°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
16%
17°C
38%
18°C
30%
19°C
12%
20°C
6%
21°C
3%
22°C
5%
23°C
5%
24°C or higher
1%
17°C 38%
18°C 30%
19°C 20%
16°C 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
14°C or below
$26 Обс.
2%
15°C
$0 Обс.
7%
16°C
$0 Обс.
16%
17°C
$0 Обс.
38%
18°C
$0 Обс.
30%
19°C
$31 Обс.
12%
20°C
$12 Обс.
6%
21°C
$5 Обс.
3%
22°C
$5 Обс.
5%
23°C
$5 Обс.
5%
24°C or higher
$12 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate minimum temperatures in Paris on August 11 clustering near 17–18°C, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology (historical lows averaging 15–16°C) while reflecting modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer conditions and potential for slight warming from Atlantic flow. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these outcomes given the narrow spread across recent model runs, with lower probabilities for 15–16°C or 19°C+ reflecting tail risks from forecast shifts expected in updated guidance over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate minimum temperatures in Paris on August 11 clustering near 17–18°C, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology (historical lows averaging 15–16°C) while reflecting modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer conditions and potential for slight warming from Atlantic flow. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these outcomes given the narrow spread across recent model runs, with lower probabilities for 15–16°C or 19°C+ reflecting tail risks from forecast shifts expected in updated guidance over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$95Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF models indicate minimum temperatures in Paris on August 11 clustering near 17–18°C, driven by moderate overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology (historical lows averaging 15–16°C) while reflecting modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer conditions and potential for slight warming from Atlantic flow. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these outcomes given the narrow spread across recent model runs, with lower probabilities for 15–16°C or 19°C+ reflecting tail risks from forecast shifts expected in updated guidance over the next 48 hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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