**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.** Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?
12°C 50%
13°C 44%
14°C 6%
11°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
50%
13°C
44%
14°C
6%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 50%
13°C 44%
14°C 6%
11°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 11, 2026
6°C or below
$503 Обс.
<1%
7°C
$503 Обс.
<1%
8°C
$481 Обс.
<1%
9°C
$350 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$27 Обс.
2%
11°C
$627 Обс.
5%
12°C
$844 Обс.
50%
13°C
$1,473 Обс.
44%
14°C
$614 Обс.
6%
15°C
$206 Обс.
<1%
16°C or higher
$498 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.**
Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$6,125Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.**
Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$6,125Дата завершення
Aug 11, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 9, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Wellington’s August 11 maximum temperature centers on the latest MetService and ECMWF short-range guidance, which keeps the daily high near the climatological average of 12–13 °C.** Wintertime southerly flow across Cook Strait, combined with variable low-level cloud and the timing of a weak cold front, creates narrow uncertainty in daytime insolation and boundary-layer mixing. These factors explain the near-even split between the 12 °C (50.5 %) and 13 °C (42 %) outcomes, while probabilities fall sharply outside this band because historical August maxima rarely deviate by more than 1–2 °C without subtropical advection. Seasonal outlooks from NIWA reinforce near-average conditions, and traders are weighting the most recent model runs ahead of the next forecast update cycle.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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