Recent short-range forecast guidance from European and global ensembles, aligned with Turkish State Meteorological Service runs, positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure influence with moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea moderating afternoon peaks via sea-breeze effects. This setup supports daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C on August 12, matching the market’s leading implied probabilities of 51.5% for 28°C and 24% for 29°C while capping upside risk above 30°C at low single-digit odds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C with low ensemble spread in the current pattern; updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will refine whether any subtle warming advection emerges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
28°C 55%
29°C 24%
27°C 17%
30°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
8%
27°C
17%
28°C
55%
29°C
24%
30°C
10%
31°C
4%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 55%
29°C 24%
27°C 17%
30°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$12 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$12 Обс.
1%
25°C
$12 Обс.
6%
26°C
$6 Обс.
8%
27°C
$0 Обс.
17%
28°C
$75 Обс.
55%
29°C
$5 Обс.
24%
30°C
$0 Обс.
10%
31°C
$7 Обс.
4%
32°C
$12 Обс.
4%
33°C or higher
$12 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from European and global ensembles, aligned with Turkish State Meteorological Service runs, positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure influence with moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea moderating afternoon peaks via sea-breeze effects. This setup supports daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C on August 12, matching the market’s leading implied probabilities of 51.5% for 28°C and 24% for 29°C while capping upside risk above 30°C at low single-digit odds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C with low ensemble spread in the current pattern; updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will refine whether any subtle warming advection emerges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Обсяг
$153Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast guidance from European and global ensembles, aligned with Turkish State Meteorological Service runs, positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure influence with moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea moderating afternoon peaks via sea-breeze effects. This setup supports daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C on August 12, matching the market’s leading implied probabilities of 51.5% for 28°C and 24% for 29°C while capping upside risk above 30°C at low single-digit odds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C with low ensemble spread in the current pattern; updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will refine whether any subtle warming advection emerges before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$153Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast guidance from European and global ensembles, aligned with Turkish State Meteorological Service runs, positions Istanbul under stable high-pressure influence with moderate northerly flow off the Black Sea moderating afternoon peaks via sea-breeze effects. This setup supports daily maxima clustered near 28–29°C on August 12, matching the market’s leading implied probabilities of 51.5% for 28°C and 24% for 29°C while capping upside risk above 30°C at low single-digit odds. Historical August climatology shows mean highs of 28–30°C with low ensemble spread in the current pattern; updated model runs through the next 24–48 hours will refine whether any subtle warming advection emerges before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання