Latest NOAA and regional model runs point to a high near 70–72°F for San Francisco on August 10, with the tight 34%–30.5% split between the 72–73°F and 70–71°F bins reflecting small differences in marine-layer timing and onshore flow strength. Persistent northwest winds and a strong onshore gradient maintain the typical August stratus deck, limiting solar heating while the Pacific high keeps the thermal trough offshore; any earlier fog clearance or slightly warmer 850 hPa temperatures could push readings into the low 70s, whereas prolonged low clouds would cap them near 70°F. Historical climatology shows August daily maxima averaging 69°F at downtown stations, underscoring the modest variability traders are pricing. Updated National Weather Service forecast discussions and morning model cycles tomorrow morning will provide the final guidance before resolution.