Chengdu’s August climate features typical highs of 30–32°C amid high humidity and frequent monsoon showers that moderate peaks, yet the basin’s topography can trap heat under clear, high-pressure conditions. The market’s broad distribution around 33–35°C reflects model consensus on near-normal temperatures with notable day-to-day variability from steering winds, cloud cover, and localized convection. Key variables include short-term forecast adjustments from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration, potential afternoon thunderstorm development that caps maxima, and any lingering heatwave signals. Historical analogs show occasional spikes above 35°C, supporting the leading but sub-50% probability for 35°C or higher while underscoring resolution sensitivity to the precise 24-hour maximum reported.