A strengthening El Niño event, now under NOAA advisory with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in key Pacific regions and a >90% chance of very strong status by fall 2026, is the dominant driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds near 1.34–1.45°C. Recent daily records, including a 17.04°C global surface air temperature on August 8, reflect this superposition of the developing El Niño on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, consistent with July 2026 tying for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline. Traders weigh the lagged El Niño influence against natural month-to-month variability and model spreads in remaining weeks, producing tightly clustered probabilities across the 1.30–1.45°C range while the <1.30°C outcome lags at 23.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.34–1.37ºC 39%
>1.45ºC 39%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
24%
1.30–1.33ºC
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
39%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
39%
>1.45ºC
39%
1.34–1.37ºC 39%
>1.45ºC 39%
1.30–1.33ºC 39%
1.38–1.41ºC 39%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Обс.
24%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Обс.
39%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Обс.
39%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Обс.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Обс.
39%
>1.45ºC
$0 Обс.
39%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now under NOAA advisory with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in key Pacific regions and a >90% chance of very strong status by fall 2026, is the dominant driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds near 1.34–1.45°C. Recent daily records, including a 17.04°C global surface air temperature on August 8, reflect this superposition of the developing El Niño on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, consistent with July 2026 tying for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline. Traders weigh the lagged El Niño influence against natural month-to-month variability and model spreads in remaining weeks, producing tightly clustered probabilities across the 1.30–1.45°C range while the <1.30°C outcome lags at 23.5%.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, now under NOAA advisory with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in key Pacific regions and a >90% chance of very strong status by fall 2026, is the dominant driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds near 1.34–1.45°C. Recent daily records, including a 17.04°C global surface air temperature on August 8, reflect this superposition of the developing El Niño on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, consistent with July 2026 tying for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline. Traders weigh the lagged El Niño influence against natural month-to-month variability and model spreads in remaining weeks, producing tightly clustered probabilities across the 1.30–1.45°C range while the <1.30°C outcome lags at 23.5%.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, now under NOAA advisory with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2°C in key Pacific regions and a >90% chance of very strong status by fall 2026, is the dominant driver elevating August global temperature anomaly odds near 1.34–1.45°C. Recent daily records, including a 17.04°C global surface air temperature on August 8, reflect this superposition of the developing El Niño on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, consistent with July 2026 tying for the second-warmest July on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline. Traders weigh the lagged El Niño influence against natural month-to-month variability and model spreads in remaining weeks, producing tightly clustered probabilities across the 1.30–1.45°C range while the <1.30°C outcome lags at 23.5%.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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