**Strong trader consensus on "No" at 94.2% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust earthquakes on the global scale.** These events require near-simultaneous rupture along hundreds of kilometers of subduction-zone faults and occur roughly once every 25–50 years on average, with only a handful recorded since 1950 (including the 2011 Tōhoku and 2004 Sumatra events). No M9+ quake has struck since 2011, and 2025–2026 activity has remained below M8.8, consistent with USGS monitoring data showing no elevated global strain release or foreshock patterns that typically precede such events. With only months remaining until 2027, the short time window further compresses already low odds. While an unanticipated full-margin rupture in zones such as Cascadia or southern Chile could theoretically occur without clear precursors, historical recurrence intervals and current seismic quiescence make this outcome improbable before year-end.