The market's strong "No" consensus at 94% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which occur globally only once every several decades based on the instrumental record since the 1950s, with none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. From mid-August 2026 through year-end, the remaining window is too short for realistic odds of such a megathrust rupture on monitored subduction zones, where USGS and similar agencies report no current strain indicators or foreshock sequences elevating near-term risk. Historical frequency data and annual probabilities well below 1% in high-hazard regions underpin trader conviction, though an unexpected full-margin event in Cascadia or similar zones could still shift outcomes if monitoring networks detect rapid precursor activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
6% шанс
$272,634 Обс.
$272,634 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
$272,634 Обс.
$272,634 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong "No" consensus at 94% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which occur globally only once every several decades based on the instrumental record since the 1950s, with none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. From mid-August 2026 through year-end, the remaining window is too short for realistic odds of such a megathrust rupture on monitored subduction zones, where USGS and similar agencies report no current strain indicators or foreshock sequences elevating near-term risk. Historical frequency data and annual probabilities well below 1% in high-hazard regions underpin trader conviction, though an unexpected full-margin event in Cascadia or similar zones could still shift outcomes if monitoring networks detect rapid precursor activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$272,634Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The market's strong "No" consensus at 94% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which occur globally only once every several decades based on the instrumental record since the 1950s, with none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. From mid-August 2026 through year-end, the remaining window is too short for realistic odds of such a megathrust rupture on monitored subduction zones, where USGS and similar agencies report no current strain indicators or foreshock sequences elevating near-term risk. Historical frequency data and annual probabilities well below 1% in high-hazard regions underpin trader conviction, though an unexpected full-margin event in Cascadia or similar zones could still shift outcomes if monitoring networks detect rapid precursor activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$272,634Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market's strong "No" consensus at 94% reflects the extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which occur globally only once every several decades based on the instrumental record since the 1950s, with none recorded since the 2011 Tōhoku event. From mid-August 2026 through year-end, the remaining window is too short for realistic odds of such a megathrust rupture on monitored subduction zones, where USGS and similar agencies report no current strain indicators or foreshock sequences elevating near-term risk. Historical frequency data and annual probabilities well below 1% in high-hazard regions underpin trader conviction, though an unexpected full-margin event in Cascadia or similar zones could still shift outcomes if monitoring networks detect rapid precursor activity.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання