The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$189,830 Обс.
$189,830 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,830 Обс.
$189,830 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$189,830Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Обсяг
$189,830Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, as documented in the USGS global catalog with only five such events since 1900—1960 Chile (9.5), 1964 Alaska (9.2), 1952 Kamchatka (9.0), 2004 Sumatra (9.1–9.3), and 2011 Tōhoku (9.0–9.1)—underpins the 95.9% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. Averaging fewer than one per 25 years worldwide, none has occurred in 15 years amid steady seismic rates (USGS reports ~1 M8+ annually, far more common), and with under eight months left, the brief window further suppresses odds absent precursors. Realistic scenarios shifting sentiment include abrupt full rupture of a locked subduction zone like Cascadia or southern Chile, though current USGS monitoring reveals no anomalous strain or foreshock clusters; watch for quarterly hazard updates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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