**Scientific consensus from the USGS and seismological data establishes that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth.** Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length and slip; no known fault is long enough to release the required energy—roughly equivalent to a fault spanning much of the planet's circumference. The largest recorded event reached 9.5 in Chile's 1960 Valdivia quake along a ~1,000 km subduction zone, with all subsequent great events (such as the 9.2 Alaska 1964 and 9.1–9.2 Sumatra 2004) falling well below 10.0. In the brief window remaining before 2027, recent global monitoring shows only moderate activity, with 2026 events peaking around 7.7–7.8. Market-implied odds near 99% reflect this established geophysical limit rather than forecast uncertainty, though traders recognize that any future revision in maximum-magnitude scaling laws could theoretically reopen debate.