SpaceX's introduction of Starship Version 3, featuring redesigned Raptor 3 engines with higher thrust, increased propellant capacity, and a new launch pad at Starbase, has driven the strong market consensus around fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026. After a seven-month hiatus since the prior flight in late 2025, the upcoming Flight 12 debut on May 19 represents the first test of this major architecture overhaul, which historically extends development cycles as teams iterate through static fires, regulatory approvals, and flight data. Traders appear to weigh the risks of early V3 anomalies against SpaceX's proven rapid recovery from prior setbacks, with potential for accelerated cadence only if initial missions achieve reliable hot staging and booster recovery.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
Скільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
<5 59%
5–6 32%
7-8 4.4%
>16 2.5%
$449,633 Обс.
$449,633 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
59%
5–6
25%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
<5 59%
5–6 32%
7-8 4.4%
>16 2.5%
$449,633 Обс.
$449,633 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$90,544 Обс.
59%
5–6
$108,316 Обс.
25%
7-8
$152,148 Обс.
4%
9-10
$55,882 Обс.
2%
11-12
$3,765 Обс.
2%
13-14
$4,747 Обс.
1%
15-16
$25,181 Обс.
2%
>16
$9,048 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's introduction of Starship Version 3, featuring redesigned Raptor 3 engines with higher thrust, increased propellant capacity, and a new launch pad at Starbase, has driven the strong market consensus around fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026. After a seven-month hiatus since the prior flight in late 2025, the upcoming Flight 12 debut on May 19 represents the first test of this major architecture overhaul, which historically extends development cycles as teams iterate through static fires, regulatory approvals, and flight data. Traders appear to weigh the risks of early V3 anomalies against SpaceX's proven rapid recovery from prior setbacks, with potential for accelerated cadence only if initial missions achieve reliable hot staging and booster recovery.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$449,633Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's introduction of Starship Version 3, featuring redesigned Raptor 3 engines with higher thrust, increased propellant capacity, and a new launch pad at Starbase, has driven the strong market consensus around fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026. After a seven-month hiatus since the prior flight in late 2025, the upcoming Flight 12 debut on May 19 represents the first test of this major architecture overhaul, which historically extends development cycles as teams iterate through static fires, regulatory approvals, and flight data. Traders appear to weigh the risks of early V3 anomalies against SpaceX's proven rapid recovery from prior setbacks, with potential for accelerated cadence only if initial missions achieve reliable hot staging and booster recovery.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$449,633Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's introduction of Starship Version 3, featuring redesigned Raptor 3 engines with higher thrust, increased propellant capacity, and a new launch pad at Starbase, has driven the strong market consensus around fewer than five launches reaching space in 2026. After a seven-month hiatus since the prior flight in late 2025, the upcoming Flight 12 debut on May 19 represents the first test of this major architecture overhaul, which historically extends development cycles as teams iterate through static fires, regulatory approvals, and flight data. Traders appear to weigh the risks of early V3 anomalies against SpaceX's proven rapid recovery from prior setbacks, with potential for accelerated cadence only if initial missions achieve reliable hot staging and booster recovery.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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