Trader consensus on the 2026 Starship launch market, with <5 flights at 53.5% implied probability and 5-6 at 44.5%, reflects the program's still-limited cadence after just two successful 2026 flights through mid-September. Flight 13 in July demonstrated improved heat shield performance and suborbital Starlink V3 deployment, while Flight 14—now targeted for September 28—marks the first attempt at true orbit, six revolutions at roughly 275 km, and operational payload delivery. Persistent FAA licensing requirements, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift to full orbital profiles continue to gate rapid scaling, even as expanded airspace approvals and new infrastructure plans support future growth. Success on Flight 14 and any follow-on tower-catch or higher-cadence tests before year-end represent the key swing factors that could push totals toward the upper end of the 5-6 range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
Скільки космічних апаратів SpaceX Starship досягне космосу в 2026 році?
<5 58%
5–6 44%
7-8 3.1%
11-12 1.3%
$513,415 Обс.
$513,415 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
54%
5–6
44%
7-8
3%
9-10
<1%
11-12
1%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
<5 58%
5–6 44%
7-8 3.1%
11-12 1.3%
$513,415 Обс.
$513,415 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$102,844 Обс.
54%
5–6
$117,407 Обс.
44%
7-8
$161,675 Обс.
3%
9-10
$63,399 Обс.
<1%
11-12
$10,360 Обс.
1%
13-14
$11,020 Обс.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Обс.
<1%
>16
$14,663 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the 2026 Starship launch market, with <5 flights at 53.5% implied probability and 5-6 at 44.5%, reflects the program's still-limited cadence after just two successful 2026 flights through mid-September. Flight 13 in July demonstrated improved heat shield performance and suborbital Starlink V3 deployment, while Flight 14—now targeted for September 28—marks the first attempt at true orbit, six revolutions at roughly 275 km, and operational payload delivery. Persistent FAA licensing requirements, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift to full orbital profiles continue to gate rapid scaling, even as expanded airspace approvals and new infrastructure plans support future growth. Success on Flight 14 and any follow-on tower-catch or higher-cadence tests before year-end represent the key swing factors that could push totals toward the upper end of the 5-6 range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$513,415Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on the 2026 Starship launch market, with <5 flights at 53.5% implied probability and 5-6 at 44.5%, reflects the program's still-limited cadence after just two successful 2026 flights through mid-September. Flight 13 in July demonstrated improved heat shield performance and suborbital Starlink V3 deployment, while Flight 14—now targeted for September 28—marks the first attempt at true orbit, six revolutions at roughly 275 km, and operational payload delivery. Persistent FAA licensing requirements, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift to full orbital profiles continue to gate rapid scaling, even as expanded airspace approvals and new infrastructure plans support future growth. Success on Flight 14 and any follow-on tower-catch or higher-cadence tests before year-end represent the key swing factors that could push totals toward the upper end of the 5-6 range.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$513,415Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 Starship launch market, with <5 flights at 53.5% implied probability and 5-6 at 44.5%, reflects the program's still-limited cadence after just two successful 2026 flights through mid-September. Flight 13 in July demonstrated improved heat shield performance and suborbital Starlink V3 deployment, while Flight 14—now targeted for September 28—marks the first attempt at true orbit, six revolutions at roughly 275 km, and operational payload delivery. Persistent FAA licensing requirements, booster relight reliability fixes, and the shift to full orbital profiles continue to gate rapid scaling, even as expanded airspace approvals and new infrastructure plans support future growth. Success on Flight 14 and any follow-on tower-catch or higher-cadence tests before year-end represent the key swing factors that could push totals toward the upper end of the 5-6 range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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