Recent V3 Starship flight tests, including the successful July 2026 Flight 13 with intact upper-stage splashdown, heat-shield telemetry, and Starlink V3 deployment, have reinforced trader confidence in near-term reusability milestones. Progress on Super Heavy booster tower catches and Raptor 3 engine reliability supports the 55% implied probability for full booster-and-ship recovery before 2027, yet persistent hurdles around rapid heat-shield refurbishment, propellant transfer, and regulatory cadence keep the market closely balanced. Upcoming Flight 14 attempts to catch the ship itself represent the key near-term catalyst that could shift sentiment.