Recent delays have kept the DOGE-1 CubeSat mission—first announced in 2021 as the initial crypto-funded SpaceX payload—off the manifest despite a September 14, 2026 target window. Multiple prior postponements, shifting SpaceX priorities, and Elon Musk’s noncommittal remarks have reinforced trader skepticism that the satellite will reach lunar orbit this year. As the calendar turns past the latest slot without confirmed liftoff, market-implied odds reflect the long history of slippage and the project’s low priority relative to higher-profile Falcon 9 and Starship campaigns. Any fresh manifest filing, rideshare confirmation, or public update from Geometric Energy Corporation could quickly shift sentiment, but historical patterns suggest further deferral remains the baseline expectation.