Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre, using systems like Sentry and Scout, has identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent impact in 2026. Surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS routinely detect objects around 20 meters or larger well in advance, consistent with the low historical rate of such events amid frequent smaller meteoroid entries. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s 96.6% implied probability for “No.” The main remaining uncertainty stems from the slim chance of an undetected small asteroid emerging on a short-term collision course before year-end, though current observational coverage renders this highly improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
4% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre, using systems like Sentry and Scout, has identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent impact in 2026. Surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS routinely detect objects around 20 meters or larger well in advance, consistent with the low historical rate of such events amid frequent smaller meteoroid entries. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s 96.6% implied probability for “No.” The main remaining uncertainty stems from the slim chance of an undetected small asteroid emerging on a short-term collision course before year-end, though current observational coverage renders this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,863Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre, using systems like Sentry and Scout, has identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent impact in 2026. Surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS routinely detect objects around 20 meters or larger well in advance, consistent with the low historical rate of such events amid frequent smaller meteoroid entries. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s 96.6% implied probability for “No.” The main remaining uncertainty stems from the slim chance of an undetected small asteroid emerging on a short-term collision course before year-end, though current observational coverage renders this highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$8,863Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre, using systems like Sentry and Scout, has identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering a 100-kiloton TNT-equivalent impact in 2026. Surveys such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS routinely detect objects around 20 meters or larger well in advance, consistent with the low historical rate of such events amid frequent smaller meteoroid entries. This scientific consensus underpins the market’s 96.6% implied probability for “No.” The main remaining uncertainty stems from the slim chance of an undetected small asteroid emerging on a short-term collision course before year-end, though current observational coverage renders this highly improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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