SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 reuse cadence and advancing Starship flight-test program currently anchor trader expectations near 140-159 launches for 2026. Through mid-May the company has maintained a pace exceeding one launch per week, supported by multiple operational pads at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg plus ongoing Starlink deployments. Technical readiness for Starship orbital flights and crewed missions remains the key variable: successful completion of upcoming integrated flight tests and timely FAA license expansions could push totals toward 160-179, while any extended regulatory reviews or hardware delays would favor the lower range. Historical success rates above 95 percent for Falcon vehicles provide a stable baseline, yet model consensus on Starship reliability continues to evolve with each test iteration.