Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the lingering effects of the 2024–2025 El Niño continue to drive trader consensus toward a second-place ranking for 2026 global temperatures, carrying a 57.5% implied probability. NOAA and NASA data show that 2025 remained among the warmest years despite the shift toward neutral or La Niña conditions, establishing an elevated baseline that makes a new record in 2026 less certain but still plausible at 35%. Historical patterns indicate post–El Niño years frequently place in the top two, though natural variability in ocean heat content and atmospheric circulation could alter the final order. Quarterly global temperature updates scheduled for later this year will offer critical new observations for refining these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоДе 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 або нижче 2.3%
$2,820,262 Обс.
$2,820,262 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 або нижче
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 або нижче 2.3%
$2,820,262 Обс.
$2,820,262 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,726 Обс.
35%
2
$325,824 Обс.
57%
3
$428,143 Обс.
2%
4
$416,574 Обс.
3%
5
$731,047 Обс.
1%
6 або нижче
$464,948 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the lingering effects of the 2024–2025 El Niño continue to drive trader consensus toward a second-place ranking for 2026 global temperatures, carrying a 57.5% implied probability. NOAA and NASA data show that 2025 remained among the warmest years despite the shift toward neutral or La Niña conditions, establishing an elevated baseline that makes a new record in 2026 less certain but still plausible at 35%. Historical patterns indicate post–El Niño years frequently place in the top two, though natural variability in ocean heat content and atmospheric circulation could alter the final order. Quarterly global temperature updates scheduled for later this year will offer critical new observations for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,820,262Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the lingering effects of the 2024–2025 El Niño continue to drive trader consensus toward a second-place ranking for 2026 global temperatures, carrying a 57.5% implied probability. NOAA and NASA data show that 2025 remained among the warmest years despite the shift toward neutral or La Niña conditions, establishing an elevated baseline that makes a new record in 2026 less certain but still plausible at 35%. Historical patterns indicate post–El Niño years frequently place in the top two, though natural variability in ocean heat content and atmospheric circulation could alter the final order. Quarterly global temperature updates scheduled for later this year will offer critical new observations for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,820,262Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the lingering effects of the 2024–2025 El Niño continue to drive trader consensus toward a second-place ranking for 2026 global temperatures, carrying a 57.5% implied probability. NOAA and NASA data show that 2025 remained among the warmest years despite the shift toward neutral or La Niña conditions, establishing an elevated baseline that makes a new record in 2026 less certain but still plausible at 35%. Historical patterns indicate post–El Niño years frequently place in the top two, though natural variability in ocean heat content and atmospheric circulation could alter the final order. Quarterly global temperature updates scheduled for later this year will offer critical new observations for refining these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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