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icon for Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
Клімат і наука·Science

Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?

icon for Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
Клімат і наука·Science

Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?

1 73%

2 25%

3 2.1%

6 або нижче <1%

Polymarket

$3,327,497 Обс.

1 73%

2 25%

3 2.1%

6 або нижче <1%

Polymarket

$3,327,497 Обс.

1

$570,495 Обс.

73%

2

$392,490 Обс.

25%

3

$497,321 Обс.

2%

4

$512,602 Обс.

<1%

5

$820,483 Обс.

<1%

6 або нижче

$534,106 Обс.

1%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The intensifying El Niño in 2026, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through winter, stands as the dominant driver behind the market's 69.5% implied probability for a record-warm year and 27.5% for second place. Persistent high baseline temperatures from accumulated greenhouse gases, combined with record ocean heat content and January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest period on record per NOAA data, position 2026 to challenge 2024 and 2025. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics alongside model projections of further warming through year-end, though ENSO variability and measurement revisions introduce realistic uncertainty around final rankings.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,327,497
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.The intensifying El Niño in 2026, with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2°C and forecasts indicating a very strong event through winter, stands as the dominant driver behind the market's 69.5% implied probability for a record-warm year and 27.5% for second place. Persistent high baseline temperatures from accumulated greenhouse gases, combined with record ocean heat content and January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest period on record per NOAA data, position 2026 to challenge 2024 and 2025. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics alongside model projections of further warming through year-end, though ENSO variability and measurement revisions introduce realistic uncertainty around final rankings.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,327,497
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Пов'язане

icon for Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

Will August 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

97%
icon for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

96%
icon for Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

36%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1» з 73%, далі «2» з 25%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» згенерував $3.3 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 12, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» — «1» з 73%. Наступний — «2» з 25%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.