Skip to main content
icon for Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
Клімат і наука·Science

Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?

icon for Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?
Клімат і наука·Science

Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?

1 70%

2 28%

3 2.1%

6 або нижче 1.3%

Polymarket

$3,315,584 Обс.

1 70%

2 28%

3 2.1%

6 або нижче 1.3%

Polymarket

$3,315,584 Обс.

1

$568,204 Обс.

70%

2

$391,572 Обс.

28%

3

$495,790 Обс.

2%

4

$510,683 Обс.

<1%

5

$817,553 Обс.

<1%

6 або нижче

$531,782 Обс.

1%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.A strengthening El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting a very strong phase peaking this winter, is the main driver elevating market-implied odds for 2026 finishing first (69.5%) or second (28%) among the warmest years since 1850. Year-to-date global surface temperatures through July rank third-highest on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with July 2026 tying 2024 for the hottest July amid record ocean warmth. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend, while El Niño's lagged atmospheric effects boost anomalies beyond recent La Niña-influenced years like 2025. Traders appear focused on model consensus projecting continued high temperatures into late 2026, though ENSO variability and final-quarter data introduce some uncertainty around exact placement versus 2024.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,315,584
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.A strengthening El Niño event, with NOAA forecasting a very strong phase peaking this winter, is the main driver elevating market-implied odds for 2026 finishing first (69.5%) or second (28%) among the warmest years since 1850. Year-to-date global surface temperatures through July rank third-highest on record at roughly 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, with July 2026 tying 2024 for the hottest July amid record ocean warmth. Long-term anthropogenic warming provides the baseline trend, while El Niño's lagged atmospheric effects boost anomalies beyond recent La Niña-influenced years like 2025. Traders appear focused on model consensus projecting continued high temperatures into late 2026, though ENSO variability and final-quarter data introduce some uncertainty around exact placement versus 2024.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$3,315,584
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Пов'язане

icon for Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in August 2026?

96%
icon for Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

Will global temperature increase by between 1.38ºC and 1.41ºC in August 2026?

35%
icon for Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

6%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «1» з 70%, далі «2» з 28%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» згенерував $3.3 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 12, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» — «1» з 70%. Наступний — «2» з 28%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Де 2026 рік займе місце серед найспекотніших років в історії?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.