Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 95.3% implied probability of no new coronavirus pandemic in 2026, driven by WHO and CDC surveillance data through mid-May showing no emergence of a novel coronavirus species beyond endemic SARS-CoV-2 circulation. Wastewater monitoring indicates very low COVID-19 levels nationwide, with test positivity around 1% and reproduction number (Rt) estimates signaling declining or stable infections in most states—no variants under monitoring exhibit pandemic-scale transmissibility or immune escape. Global networks detect no zoonotic spillovers akin to SARS-CoV-1 or MERS-CoV, bolstered by post-2020 genomic screening. Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected animal reservoir spillover in late 2026 triggering rapid spread and WHO public health emergency declaration, though historical baselines and enhanced preparedness make this unlikely. Upcoming WHO vaccine antigen updates in May offer further clarity.