Major eruptions reaching VEI 6 or higher remain rare, with an average recurrence of roughly 50–100 years globally based on the geologic record; the most recent was Pinatubo in 1991. As of mid-August 2026, official monitoring by the USGS and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows only typical background seismicity and deformation at monitored systems, with dozens of smaller eruptions recorded this year but none approaching the required explosivity or volume thresholds. This absence of precursors through more than seven months underpins the market's strong 93.6% implied probability for no event. A sudden escalation at a restless caldera could still occur before year-end, though such rapid transitions to VEI 6 are historically uncommon without extended warning signs.