Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals worldwide. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring through May 2026 reports 47 confirmed eruptions this year, all low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive activity, such as Kīlauea’s paused summit fountaining, with no seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or magma influx at calderas or stratovolcanoes capable of ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of material. Recent Kikai Caldera data indicates slow post-VEI7 refilling over millennia, not imminent unrest. Realistic challenges include undetected buildup at remote sites like Axial Seamount or Campi Flegrei, though daily USGS volcano updates and aviation notices provide early detection windows for the remainder of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
$80,401 Обс.
$80,401 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
$80,401 Обс.
$80,401 Обс.
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals worldwide. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring through May 2026 reports 47 confirmed eruptions this year, all low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive activity, such as Kīlauea’s paused summit fountaining, with no seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or magma influx at calderas or stratovolcanoes capable of ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of material. Recent Kikai Caldera data indicates slow post-VEI7 refilling over millennia, not imminent unrest. Realistic challenges include undetected buildup at remote sites like Axial Seamount or Campi Flegrei, though daily USGS volcano updates and aviation notices provide early detection windows for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$80,401Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals worldwide. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring through May 2026 reports 47 confirmed eruptions this year, all low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive activity, such as Kīlauea’s paused summit fountaining, with no seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or magma influx at calderas or stratovolcanoes capable of ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of material. Recent Kikai Caldera data indicates slow post-VEI7 refilling over millennia, not imminent unrest. Realistic challenges include undetected buildup at remote sites like Axial Seamount or Campi Flegrei, though daily USGS volcano updates and aviation notices provide early detection windows for the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$80,401Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91.5% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such colossal events—last occurring at Mount Pinatubo in 1991—and the absence of precursory signals worldwide. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring through May 2026 reports 47 confirmed eruptions this year, all low-VEI effusive or moderate explosive activity, such as Kīlauea’s paused summit fountaining, with no seismic swarms, rapid ground deformation, or magma influx at calderas or stratovolcanoes capable of ejecting over 10 cubic kilometers of material. Recent Kikai Caldera data indicates slow post-VEI7 refilling over millennia, not imminent unrest. Realistic challenges include undetected buildup at remote sites like Axial Seamount or Campi Flegrei, though daily USGS volcano updates and aviation notices provide early detection windows for the remainder of 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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