Mount Etna’s ongoing but predominantly low-intensity activity in 2026 underpins the near-even market odds, with persistent Strombolian explosions, lava flows, and ash emissions at summit craters like Voragine registering mostly VEI 0–1. Recent phases since late 2025 have produced effusive vents and intermittent fountains monitored by INGV, yet without sustained explosive columns or significant tephra volumes meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Key uncertainties center on magma pressurization and flank instability that could rapidly escalate output, versus the volcano’s typical pattern of frequent modest events. INGV seismic, gas, and deformation data releases, plus any aviation color-code shifts, remain the primary near-term signals that could shift consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
0% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
0% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing but predominantly low-intensity activity in 2026 underpins the near-even market odds, with persistent Strombolian explosions, lava flows, and ash emissions at summit craters like Voragine registering mostly VEI 0–1. Recent phases since late 2025 have produced effusive vents and intermittent fountains monitored by INGV, yet without sustained explosive columns or significant tephra volumes meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Key uncertainties center on magma pressurization and flank instability that could rapidly escalate output, versus the volcano’s typical pattern of frequent modest events. INGV seismic, gas, and deformation data releases, plus any aviation color-code shifts, remain the primary near-term signals that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$21Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Mount Etna’s ongoing but predominantly low-intensity activity in 2026 underpins the near-even market odds, with persistent Strombolian explosions, lava flows, and ash emissions at summit craters like Voragine registering mostly VEI 0–1. Recent phases since late 2025 have produced effusive vents and intermittent fountains monitored by INGV, yet without sustained explosive columns or significant tephra volumes meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Key uncertainties center on magma pressurization and flank instability that could rapidly escalate output, versus the volcano’s typical pattern of frequent modest events. INGV seismic, gas, and deformation data releases, plus any aviation color-code shifts, remain the primary near-term signals that could shift consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Обсяг
$21Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mount Etna’s ongoing but predominantly low-intensity activity in 2026 underpins the near-even market odds, with persistent Strombolian explosions, lava flows, and ash emissions at summit craters like Voragine registering mostly VEI 0–1. Recent phases since late 2025 have produced effusive vents and intermittent fountains monitored by INGV, yet without sustained explosive columns or significant tephra volumes meeting VEI 2 thresholds. Key uncertainties center on magma pressurization and flank instability that could rapidly escalate output, versus the volcano’s typical pattern of frequent modest events. INGV seismic, gas, and deformation data releases, plus any aviation color-code shifts, remain the primary near-term signals that could shift consensus.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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