**Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive unrest, documented by Italy's Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV-Osservatorio Etneo), drives the 58.5% market-implied probability for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ event this year.** A new flank eruption began January 1 with lava flows from a fissure at 2,000-2,100 m elevation, followed by an impulsive explosion on March 4 producing brief ash plumes and an M4.5 earthquake, and enhanced SO2 emissions detected May 4. These Strombolian-style activities, while below VEI 2 thresholds so far (typically requiring >0.1 km³ ejecta volume), align with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate eruptions—dozens VEI 2+ since 1900 amid persistent summit unrest. April reports of unusually deep 80 km magma sourcing add escalation potential, though VEI assessments remain pending official confirmation; traders weigh this against inherent forecasting uncertainty, with INGV bulletins providing key near-term updates.**
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоEtna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026?
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
**Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive unrest, documented by Italy's Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV-Osservatorio Etneo), drives the 58.5% market-implied probability for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ event this year.** A new flank eruption began January 1 with lava flows from a fissure at 2,000-2,100 m elevation, followed by an impulsive explosion on March 4 producing brief ash plumes and an M4.5 earthquake, and enhanced SO2 emissions detected May 4. These Strombolian-style activities, while below VEI 2 thresholds so far (typically requiring >0.1 km³ ejecta volume), align with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate eruptions—dozens VEI 2+ since 1900 amid persistent summit unrest. April reports of unusually deep 80 km magma sourcing add escalation potential, though VEI assessments remain pending official confirmation; traders weigh this against inherent forecasting uncertainty, with INGV bulletins providing key near-term updates.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Обсяг
$16Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
**Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive unrest, documented by Italy's Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV-Osservatorio Etneo), drives the 58.5% market-implied probability for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ event this year.** A new flank eruption began January 1 with lava flows from a fissure at 2,000-2,100 m elevation, followed by an impulsive explosion on March 4 producing brief ash plumes and an M4.5 earthquake, and enhanced SO2 emissions detected May 4. These Strombolian-style activities, while below VEI 2 thresholds so far (typically requiring >0.1 km³ ejecta volume), align with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate eruptions—dozens VEI 2+ since 1900 amid persistent summit unrest. April reports of unusually deep 80 km magma sourcing add escalation potential, though VEI assessments remain pending official confirmation; traders weigh this against inherent forecasting uncertainty, with INGV bulletins providing key near-term updates.**
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred. If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Обсяг
$16Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 21, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mount Etna's ongoing 2026 eruptive unrest, documented by Italy's Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV-Osservatorio Etneo), drives the 58.5% market-implied probability for a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 2+ event this year.** A new flank eruption began January 1 with lava flows from a fissure at 2,000-2,100 m elevation, followed by an impulsive explosion on March 4 producing brief ash plumes and an M4.5 earthquake, and enhanced SO2 emissions detected May 4. These Strombolian-style activities, while below VEI 2 thresholds so far (typically requiring >0.1 km³ ejecta volume), align with Etna's historical pattern of frequent moderate eruptions—dozens VEI 2+ since 1900 amid persistent summit unrest. April reports of unusually deep 80 km magma sourcing add escalation potential, though VEI assessments remain pending official confirmation; traders weigh this against inherent forecasting uncertainty, with INGV bulletins providing key near-term updates.**
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання