The market-implied odds favoring zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflect the historical global frequency of roughly 0.6 such events per year, derived from Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing consistent rates of explosive eruptions ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km. No VEI ≥4 events have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including ongoing activity at Semeru, Sheveluch, and Dukono that has produced only sub-VEI4 ash plumes. Volcanic systems remain inherently unpredictable, with potential for rapid escalation at restless volcanoes under surveillance by agencies like USGS and PVMBG, though current monitoring data show no immediate indicators of intensification toward the VEI 4 threshold. Weekly GVP reports will provide the key updates through year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
Скільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.0%
$1,078,726 Обс.
$1,078,726 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
59%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 59%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.0%
$1,078,726 Обс.
$1,078,726 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,303 Обс.
59%
1
$260,191 Обс.
35%
2
$32,241 Обс.
4%
3
$26,075 Обс.
1%
4
$24,441 Обс.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied odds favoring zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflect the historical global frequency of roughly 0.6 such events per year, derived from Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing consistent rates of explosive eruptions ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km. No VEI ≥4 events have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including ongoing activity at Semeru, Sheveluch, and Dukono that has produced only sub-VEI4 ash plumes. Volcanic systems remain inherently unpredictable, with potential for rapid escalation at restless volcanoes under surveillance by agencies like USGS and PVMBG, though current monitoring data show no immediate indicators of intensification toward the VEI 4 threshold. Weekly GVP reports will provide the key updates through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,078,726Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.The market-implied odds favoring zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflect the historical global frequency of roughly 0.6 such events per year, derived from Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing consistent rates of explosive eruptions ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km. No VEI ≥4 events have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including ongoing activity at Semeru, Sheveluch, and Dukono that has produced only sub-VEI4 ash plumes. Volcanic systems remain inherently unpredictable, with potential for rapid escalation at restless volcanoes under surveillance by agencies like USGS and PVMBG, though current monitoring data show no immediate indicators of intensification toward the VEI 4 threshold. Weekly GVP reports will provide the key updates through year-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,078,726Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The market-implied odds favoring zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 reflect the historical global frequency of roughly 0.6 such events per year, derived from Smithsonian/USGS Global Volcanism Program records showing consistent rates of explosive eruptions ejecting at least 0.1 km³ of tephra with plumes exceeding 10 km. No VEI ≥4 events have occurred through mid-May despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions worldwide, including ongoing activity at Semeru, Sheveluch, and Dukono that has produced only sub-VEI4 ash plumes. Volcanic systems remain inherently unpredictable, with potential for rapid escalation at restless volcanoes under surveillance by agencies like USGS and PVMBG, though current monitoring data show no immediate indicators of intensification toward the VEI 4 threshold. Weekly GVP reports will provide the key updates through year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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